论文标题
检测与Granger因果关系的气候遥相关
Detecting climate teleconnections with Granger causality
论文作者
论文摘要
气候系统的遥相关对于改善气候可预测性至关重要，但难以量化。识别远程连接的标准方法通常基于时间序列之间的相关性。在这里，我们提出了一种利用Granger因果关系的新方法，该方法可以推断/检测任何两个领域之间的关系。我们比较不同时间尺度上的相关性和Granger因果关系所识别的遥相关。我们发现，Granger因果关系和相关性始终恢复已知的季节性降水反应，对与ElNiñoSouthern振荡相关的海面温度模式。此类发现在多个时间分辨率方面都很强大。此外，我们确定了未开发的远程连接响应的候选者。
Climate system teleconnections are crucial for improving climate predictability, but difficult to quantify. Standard approaches to identify teleconnections are often based on correlations between time series. Here we present a novel method leveraging Granger causality, which can infer/detect relationships between any two fields. We compare teleconnections identified by correlation and Granger causality at different timescales. We find that both Granger causality and correlation consistently recover known seasonal precipitation responses to the sea surface temperature pattern associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Such findings are robust across multiple time resolutions. In addition, we identify candidates for unexplored teleconnection responses.
