论文标题
关于参数估计的可靠性，在高级LIGO的第一次观察运行中
On the reliability of parameter estimates in the first observing run of Advanced LIGO
论文作者
论文摘要
准确的参数估计是最大化引力波天文学的科学影响的关键。通常使用贝叶斯推断估算二进制合并的参数。这样做时有必要做出几个假设，其中之一是检测器输出固定的高斯噪声。我们通过在第一次观察到晚期Ligo（O1）中进行模拟高斯噪声和实际检测器数据中的百分位测试来测试这些假设的有效性。我们将模拟信号添加到O1中检测到的三个事件中的每个事件中的每个事件中的512个数据，GW150914，GW151012和GW151226-并检查恢复的可信间隔是否符合统计期望。我们发现，我们能够在实际检测器数据中恢复公正的参数估计值，这表明高斯噪声的假设不会不利影响参数估计。但是，我们还发现，即使在模拟的高斯噪声中，也可以为GW151226样信号产生无偏见的参数估计，从而产生了无偏见的参数估计值。 emcee_pt采样器确实对GW150914样信号产生无偏估计。这突出了在参数空间的不同目标区域中执行百分位数测试的重要性。
Accurate parameter estimation is key to maximizing the scientific impact of gravitational-wave astronomy. Parameters of a binary merger are typically estimated using Bayesian inference. It is necessary to make several assumptions when doing so, one of which is that the the detectors output stationary Gaussian noise. We test the validity of these assumptions by performing percentile-percentile tests in both simulated Gaussian noise and real detector data in the first observing run of Advanced LIGO (O1). We add simulated signals to 512s of data centered on each of the three events detected in O1 -- GW150914, GW151012, and GW151226 -- and check that the recovered credible intervals match statistical expectations. We find that we are able to recover unbiased parameter estimates in the real detector data, indicating that the assumption of Gaussian noise does not adversely effect parameter estimates. However, we also find that both the parallel-tempered sampler emcee_pt and the nested sampler dynesty struggle to produced unbiased parameter estimates for GW151226-like signals, even in simulated Gaussian noise. The emcee_pt sampler does produce unbiased estimates for GW150914-like signals. This highlights the importance of performing percentile-percentile tests in different targeted areas of parameter space.
