论文标题

使用共同信息和非线性预测估算时间序列中的条件传输熵

Estimating Conditional Transfer Entropy in Time Series using Mutual Information and Non-linear Prediction

论文作者

Baboukani, Payam Shahsavari, Graversen, Carina, Alickovic, Emina, Østergaard, Jan

论文摘要

我们提出了一个新的估计器,以测量时间序列中的定向依赖项。首先使用一种新的非均匀嵌入技术降低数据的维度,其中变量根据变量提供的新信息量的加权总和和改善变量提供的预测准确性。然后,使用贪婪的方法,最有用的子集以迭代方式选择。与使用现有选定子集获得的算法相比,算法终止,当排名最高的变量无法显着提高预测的准确性。在一项仿真研究中,我们将估计器与不同数据长度和定向依赖性强度的现有最新方法进行了比较。证明所提出的估计器的精度明显高于现有方法的准确性,尤其是对于数据高度相关和耦合的困难情况。此外,由于瞬时耦合效应,我们表明了其对定向依赖关系的错误检测低于现有措施的依赖性。我们还显示了所提出的估计量对实际颅内脑电图数据的适用性。

We propose a new estimator to measure directed dependencies in time series. The dimensionality of data is first reduced using a new non-uniform embedding technique, where the variables are ranked according to a weighted sum of the amount of new information and improvement of the prediction accuracy provided by the variables. Then, using a greedy approach, the most informative subsets are selected in an iterative way. The algorithm terminates, when the highest ranked variable is not able to significantly improve the accuracy of the prediction as compared to that obtained using the existing selected subsets. In a simulation study, we compare our estimator to existing state-of-the-art methods at different data lengths and directed dependencies strengths. It is demonstrated that the proposed estimator has a significantly higher accuracy than that of existing methods, especially for the difficult case, where the data is highly correlated and coupled. Moreover, we show its false detection of directed dependencies due to instantaneous couplings effect is lower than that of existing measures. We also show applicability of the proposed estimator on real intracranial electroencephalography data.

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