论文标题

多波大流行动力学解释了:如何驯服下一波传染病

Multiwave pandemic dynamics explained: How to tame the next wave of infectious diseases

论文作者

Cacciapaglia, Giacomo, Cot, Corentin, Sannino, Francesco

论文摘要

像1918年的西班牙流感和库维德(Covid-19)一样,大流行者在随后的海浪中遍及世界各地。但是,这种模式的起源尚无共识,这可能源于人类行为,而不是病毒扩散本身。基于复杂网络的SIR类型的时期模型很好地描述了该疾病的指数扩散,但不能自然地适应波浪模式。然而,了解这种时间结构对于设计有效的预防措施至关重要。在这里,我们提出了基于流行性重态化组(ERG)框架的波模式的一致图片,该框架由时间重新缩放的系统的全局对称为指导。我们表明,疾病的扩散率可以解释为时间稀释对称性,而流行病的最后阶段对应于达到时间尺度不变性状态。我们发现,两个波之间的地方性时期是系统中不稳定的迹象,与时间尺度不变的近距离相关。可以用具有复杂固定点的ERG模型来描述这种现象。我们的结果表明,控制下一波大流行的到来的关键是在波浪之间的漫步期,即当感染的数量线性生长时。因此,在此期间限制病毒扩散是预防或延迟下一波到来的最有效方法。在这项工作中,我们建立了一种新的指导原则,以制定中期政府的战略来遏制大流行,并避免在人类生命损失和经济损害方面有害的感染浪潮。

Pandemics, like the 1918 Spanish Influenza and COVID-19, spread through regions of the World in subsequent waves. There is, however, no consensus on the origin of this pattern, which may originate from human behaviour rather than from the virus diffusion itself. Time-honoured models of the SIR type or others based on complex networks describe well the exponential spread of the disease, but cannot naturally accommodate the wave pattern. Nevertheless, understanding this time-structure is of paramount importance in designing effective prevention measures. Here we propose a consistent picture of the wave pattern based on the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) framework, which is guided by the global symmetries of the system under time rescaling. We show that the rate of spreading of the disease can be interpreted as a time-dilation symmetry, while the final stage of an epidemic episode corresponds to reaching a time scale-invariant state. We find that the endemic period between two waves is a sign of instability in the system, associated to near-breaking of the time scale-invariance. This phenomenon can be described in terms of an eRG model featuring complex fixed points. Our results demonstrate that the key to control the arrival of the next wave of a pandemic is in the strolling period in between waves, i.e. when the number of infections grow linearly. Thus, limiting the virus diffusion in this period is the most effective way to prevent or delay the arrival of the next wave. In this work we establish a new guiding principle for the formulation of mid-term governmental strategies to curb pandemics and avoid recurrent waves of infections, deleterious in terms of human life loss and economic damage.

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