论文标题
在市场上最初几年，新生儿企业死亡的风险
The risk of death in newborn businesses during the first years in market
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们分析了生命的最初几年业务年龄和死亡率如何相关，并测试了文献中提出的不同假设。为此，我们使用了有关美国业务机构的数据，并在1977 - 2016年期间的0-5岁范围内，由美国人口普查局出版。首先，我们探讨了生存分析的经典技术（生命表和Peto-Turnbull方法）对业务生存分析的适应。然后，我们考虑了九个参数概率模型，其中大多数在可靠性分析和精算文献中众所周知，具有危险函数的不同形状，我们通过最大似然法拟合，并与Akaike信息标准进行了比较。我们的发现表明，新生儿公司的失败率与最初五年的市场年龄较低，但风险可能会上升的头几年的头几个月。
In this paper, we analyzed how business age and mortality are related during the first years of life, and tested the different hypotheses proposed in the literature. For that, we used data on U.S. business establishments, with 1-year resolution in the range of age of 0-5 years, in the period 1977-2016, published by the United States Census Bureau. First, we explored the adaptation of classical techniques of survival analysis (the Life Table and Peto-Turnbull methods) to the business survival analysis. Then, we considered nine parametric probabilistic models, most of them well-known in reliability analysis and in the actuarial literature, with different shapes of the hazard function, that we fitted by maximum likelihood method and compared with the Akaike information criterion. Our findings show that newborn firms seem to have a decreasing failure rate with the age during the first five years in market, with the exception of the first months of some years in which the risk can rise.
