论文标题
使用高斯混合模型的消费者贷款管理违约的预测可能性
Forecasting Probability of Default for Consumer Loan Management with Gaussian Mixture Models
论文作者
论文摘要
信用评分是全球金融机构和信贷贷方用于财务决策的重要工具。在本文中,我们引入了一种基于高斯混合模型(GMM)的新方法,以预测单个贷款申请人违约的可能性。我们的模型彼此聚集了相似的客户,使每个组都有健康的可能性。此外,我们基于GMM的模型概率将单个样本与簇相关联,然后根据其与GMM簇的关系来估算每个个体的默认概率。我们为银行和非银行金融机构中的风险经理和决策者提供申请,以最大程度地利用利润,并通过向那些违约可能性低于决策门槛的人提供贷款,从而减轻预期损失。我们的模型具有许多优势。首先,它为每个申请人而不是二进制分类提供了一种概率的信用依据,因此为财务决策者提供了更多信息。其次,由我们的基于GMM的默认概率计算出的火车集的预期损失非常接近实际损失,第三,我们的方法在计算上是有效的。
Credit scoring is an essential tool used by global financial institutions and credit lenders for financial decision making. In this paper, we introduce a new method based on Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to forecast the probability of default for individual loan applicants. Clustering similar customers with each other, our model associates a probability of being healthy to each group. In addition, our GMM-based model probabilistically associates individual samples to clusters, and then estimates the probability of default for each individual based on how it relates to GMM clusters. We provide applications for risk managers and decision makers in banks and non-bank financial institutions to maximize profit and mitigate the expected loss by giving loans to those who have a probability of default below a decision threshold. Our model has a number of advantages. First, it gives a probabilistic view of credit standing for each individual applicant instead of a binary classification and therefore provides more information for financial decision makers. Second, the expected loss on the train set calculated by our GMM-based default probabilities is very close to the actual loss, and third, our approach is computationally efficient.