论文标题
具有APP支持的隔离措施的有效性包含COVID-19流行病：一种参数方法
Effectiveness of isolation measures with app support to contain COVID-19 epidemics: a parametric approach
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项研究中，我们分析了旨在发现和隔离感染个体的措施的有效性，以含有诸如Covid-19的流行病，因为抑制是对有效的繁殖数量引起的。我们开发了一个数学模型，以计算这种措施产生的流行病的有效繁殖数的相对抑制。该结果表示为一小部分参数的函数，这些参数描述了流行病的主要特征，并总结了隔离度量的有效性。特别是，当一小部分人群使用移动应用进行流行控制时，我们将重点放在影响上。最后，我们将模型应用于Covid-19，提供了几个计算作为示例，以及指向公共存储库来运行自定义计算的链接。这些计算以定量的方式显示了从症状和接触跟踪信息中识别感染者并尽早将其隔离的重要性。这些计算还评估了每个变量对抑制流行病的影响。
In this study, we analyze the effectiveness of measures aimed at finding and isolating infected individuals to contain epidemics like COVID-19, as the suppression induced over the effective reproduction number. We develop a mathematical model to compute the relative suppression of the effective reproduction number of an epidemic that such measures produce. This outcome is expressed as a function of a small set of parameters that describe the main features of the epidemic and summarize the effectiveness of the isolation measures. In particular, we focus on the impact when a fraction of the population uses a mobile application for epidemic control. Finally, we apply the model to COVID-19, providing several computations as examples, and a link to a public repository to run custom calculations. These computations display in a quantitative manner the importance of recognizing infected individuals from symptoms and contact-tracing information, and isolating them as early as possible. The computations also assess the impact of each variable on the suppression of the epidemic.
