论文标题

摩洛哥covid-19脱浓策略有效性的随机时间延迟模型

A stochastic time-delayed model for the effectiveness of Moroccan COVID-19 deconfinement strategy

论文作者

Zine, Houssine, Boukhouima, Adnane, Lotfi, El Mehdi, Mahrouf, Marouane, Torres, Delfim F. M., Yousfi, Noura

论文摘要

2019年冠状病毒病(Covid-19)对全球公共卫生和经济构成了巨大威胁。目前,Covid-19在许多国家发展到第二阶段,其特征是需要解放经济和放松人类的心理影响。为此,许多国家决定实施适当的解解策略。在既定的监禁的第一个延长之后,摩洛哥于2020年5月20日迁移到解密阶段。相关问题涉及对Covid-19的繁殖的影响,这是由于适应性度量的有效性水平而引起的与随机噪声相关的额外程度的现实主义。在本文中,我们提出了一个延迟的随机数学模型,以预测摩洛哥摩洛哥在摩洛哥的流行病学趋势。为了确保模型的适当性,我们证明了积极解决方案的存在和独特性。基于Martingales的大量定理,我们在适当的阈值参数下讨论了该疾病的灭绝。此外,进行数值模拟是为了测试摩洛哥当局选择的解剖策略的效率,以帮助政策制定者和公共卫生管理局在不久的将来做出适当的决策。

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a great threat to public health and the economy worldwide. Currently, COVID-19 evolves in many countries to a second stage, characterized by the need for the liberation of the economy and relaxation of the human psychological effects. To this end, numerous countries decided to implement adequate deconfinement strategies. After the first prolongation of the established confinement, Morocco moves to the deconfinement stage on May 20, 2020. The relevant question concerns the impact on the COVID-19 propagation by considering an additional degree of realism related to stochastic noises due to the effectiveness level of the adapted measures. In this paper, we propose a delayed stochastic mathematical model to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco after the deconfinement. To ensure the well-posedness of the model, we prove the existence and uniqueness of a positive solution. Based on the large number theorem for martingales, we discuss the extinction of the disease under an appropriate threshold parameter. Moreover, numerical simulations are performed in order to test the efficiency of the deconfinement strategies chosen by the Moroccan authorities to help the policy makers and public health administration to make suitable decisions in the near future.

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