论文标题
英国脱欧场景对英国食品价格的预期影响以及对贫困政策的影响：结构化的专家判断更新
Anticipated impacts of Brexit scenarios on UK food prices and implications for policies on poverty and health: a structured expert judgement update
论文作者
论文摘要
粮食不安全与增加多种健康状况的风险增加以及慢性病的民族负担增加有关。家庭粮食不安全的关键决定因素是收入和食品成本。预测显示，预计2020年的家庭可支配收入预计将下降，而2021年仅略微上升。价格预计会上涨。因此，未来上涨的粮食价格将是粮食不安全的重要驱动力。结构化的专家判断启发，是一种使用专家来量化不确定性的良好方法。 2020年7月，每位专家估计，在2022年4月的2020年4月，在2020年4月的三个末期和解协议中，价格变化的中位数，第五百分位和第95个百分位数的变化，a：完整的WTO条款； B：适度的破坏性贸易协定（比WTO更好）； C：最小的破坏性贸易协定。当将消费者价格指数食品篮子成本计算成比例时，预计全WTO条款下的食品价格中位数为 +17.9％[90％可靠的间隔： +5.2％， +35.1％]；有了中等破坏性的贸易协定： +13.2％[ +2.6％， +26.4％]，而最小的破坏性贸易协定 +9.3％[ +0.8％， +21.9％]。由于英国脱欧后的几个月中预期的粮食价格大幅上涨，粮食不安全及其严重性的家庭数量可能会增加，而低收入群体支出的粮食支出不太可能增加，并且可能会因此处未考虑的其他因素而进一步侵蚀（例如，Covid-19）。较高的增加比下升高和朝上极限的可能性更大，这将带来严重的影响。研究表明，低食物预算导致饮食越来越低的研究表明，由于粮食不安全对饮食敏感条件的发病率和管理，短期和长期对卫生服务的需求可能会增加。
Food insecurity is associated with increased risk for several health conditions and with increased national burden of chronic disease. Key determinants for household food insecurity are income and food costs. Forecasts show household disposable income for 2020 expected to fall and for 2021 to rise only slightly. Prices are forecast to rise. Thus, future increased food prices would be a significant driver of greater food insecurity. Structured expert judgement elicitation, a well-established method for quantifying uncertainty, using experts. In July 2020, each expert estimated the median, 5th percentile and 95th percentile quantiles of changes in price to April 2022 for ten food categories under three end-2020 settlement Brexit scenarios: A: full WTO terms; B: a moderately disruptive trade agreement (better than WTO); C: a minimally disruptive trade agreement. When combined in proportions for calculate Consumer Prices Index food basket costs, the median food price change under full WTO terms is expected to be +17.9% [90% credible interval:+5.2%, +35.1%]; with moderately disruptive trade agreement: +13.2% [+2.6%, +26.4%] and with a minimally disruptive trade agreement +9.3% [+0.8%, +21.9%]. The number of households experiencing food insecurity and its severity are likely to increase because of expected sizeable increases in median food prices in the months after Brexit, whereas low income group spending on food is unlikely to increase, and may be further eroded by other factors not considered here (e.g. COVID-19). Higher increases are more likely than lower rises and towards the upper limits, these would entail severe impacts. Research showing a low food budget leads to increasingly poor diet suggests that demand for health services in both the short and longer term is likely to increase due to the effects of food insecurity on the incidence and management of diet-sensitive conditions.
