论文标题
建模美国 - 中国贸易冲突：公用事业理论方法
Modeling the US-China trade conflict: a utility theory approach
论文作者
论文摘要
本文对美国 - 中国贸易冲突进行了建模，并试图分析（最佳）战略选择。与有关该主题的现有文献相反，我们采用了预期的效用理论，并在数学上检查了冲突。在完美的信息和不完整的信息游戏中，我们表明，由于斗争期间的成本增加，随着获胜的效用的增加，预计净收入会减少。我们发现，在冲突期间，中国的最佳响应功能对于美国而不是。我们认为，美国迫使中国改变其现有贸易做法的越少，美国预期的净收益就越高。中国的最佳选择是维持现状，其政策和行为的进一步侵略将加剧局势。
This paper models the US-China trade conflict and attempts to analyze the (optimal) strategic choices. In contrast to the existing literature on the topic, we employ the expected utility theory and examine the conflict mathematically. In both perfect information and incomplete information games, we show that expected net gains diminish as the utility of winning increases because of the costs incurred during the struggle. We find that the best response function exists for China but not for the US during the conflict. We argue that the less the US coerces China to change its existing trade practices, the higher the US expected net gains. China's best choice is to maintain the status quo, and any further aggression in its policy and behavior will aggravate the situation.
