论文标题
一个将不同的协变量平衡方法与应用评估药物使用治疗计划的因果效应的教程
A tutorial comparing different covariate balancing methods with an application evaluating the causal effects of substance use treatment programs for adolescents
论文作者
论文摘要
随机对照试验是测量因果效应的黄金标准。但是,它们通常并不总是可行的,并且必须从观察数据中估算因果治疗效应。观察性研究不允许对因果关系得出强大的结论,除非统计技术解释了跨组的预处理混杂因素的不平衡,而关键的假设则存在。倾向评分和平衡加权(PSBW)是有用的技术,旨在通过加权组对观察到的混杂因素看起来相似,以减少治疗组之间的失衡。有许多方法可以估算PSBW。但是,尚不清楚先验将实现协变量平衡与有效样本量之间的最佳权衡。此外,评估可靠估计所需治疗效果所需的关键假设的有效性至关重要,包括重叠和没有无法衡量的混杂假设。我们提出了协变量平衡策略的逐步指南,包括如何评估重叠,获得PSBW的估计值,检查协变量平衡以及评估对未观察到的混杂的敏感性。我们使用案例研究比较了几种估计方法的性能,该案例研究检查了药物使用治疗计划的相对有效性,并提供了可以实施拟议步骤的用户友好的Web应用程序。
Randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for measuring causal effects. However, they are often not always feasible, and causal treatment effects must be estimated from observational data. Observational studies do not allow robust conclusions about causal relationships unless statistical techniques account for the imbalance of pretreatment confounders across groups while key assumptions hold. Propensity score and balance weighting (PSBW) are useful techniques that aim to reduce the imbalances between treatment groups by weighting the groups to look alike on the observed confounders. There are many methods available to estimate PSBW. However, it is unclear a priori which will achieve the best trade-off between covariate balance and effective sample size. Moreover, it is critical to assess the validity of key assumptions required for robust estimation of the needed treatment effects, including the overlap and no unmeasured confounding assumptions. We present a step-by-step guide to covariate balancing strategies, including how to evaluate overlap, obtain estimates of PSBW, check for covariate balance, and assess sensitivity to unobserved confounding. We compare the performance of several estimation methods using a case study examining the relative effectiveness of substance use treatment programs and provide a user-friendly web application that can implement the proposed steps.