论文标题
SARS-COV-2的质量流量分析用于量化的Covid-19风险分析
Mass Flow Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 for quantified COVID-19 Risk Analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
如何定量评估对SARS-COV-2的风险？工业生态学的材料代谢方法可以通过它们的数量应用于这些病毒元的质量流，这是对当前大流行的分析的关键步骤。 SARS-2从一个人发射到另一个人的暴露的几种传输路线已被建模和量化。 Start是一个Covid-19疾病进展模型，指定了受感染者的排放量的上升：人类病毒工厂。第一条路线覆盖了封闭的空间，具有发射，浓度和衰减模型，量化了暴露。下一组路线涵盖了人与人之间的联系，主要是在开放空间中，对吸入呼气的空间分布进行建模。这些模型还涵盖了偶然的暴露，例如咳嗽和打喷嚏，以及通过物体暴露。通过动物接触，排泄物和食物的路线尚未量化。潜在的暴露量不同六个数量级。封闭的房间，即使有合理的（VR 2）到良好（VR 5）通风，也构成了主要的风险。较长持续时间的亲密接触接触造成两个数量级的接触风险。开放空间可能会再次造成降低数量级的风险。较大的液滴爆发可能会引起普通的感冒，但不会引起病毒性肺炎，因为此类液滴中的病毒体无法到达肺泡。 Fomites尚未在医院显示可行的病毒，更不用说感染了。可能会受到动物感染，就像猫和雪貂一样作为宠物。这些结果表明个人和集体措施的优先域。结果的较大差异表明对大多数建模和数据改进的鲁棒性，几乎不会导致相对暴露电位的重大变化。但是，模型和数据可以大大改善。
How may exposure risks to SARS-CoV-2 be assessed quantitatively? The material metabolism approach of Industrial Ecology can be applied to the mass flows of these virions by their numbers, as a key step in the analysis of the current pandemic. Several transmission routes of SARS-2 from emission by a person to exposure of another person have been modelled and quantified. Start is a COVID-19 illness progression model specifying rising emissions by an infected person: the human virion factory. The first route covers closed spaces, with an emission, concentration, and decay model quantifying exposure. A next set of routes covers person-to-person contacts mostly in open spaces, modelling the spatial distribution of exhales towards inhalation. These models also cover incidental exposures, like coughs and sneezes, and exposure through objects. Routes through animal contacts, excrements, and food, have not been quantified. Potential exposures differ by six orders of magnitude. Closed rooms, even with reasonably (VR 2) to good (VR 5) ventilation, constitute the major exposure risks. Close person-to-person contacts of longer duration create two orders of magnitude lower exposure risks. Open spaces may create risks an order of magnitude lower again. Burst of larger droplets may cause a common cold but not viral pneumonia as the virions in such droplets cannot reach the alveoli. Fomites have not shown viable viruses in hospitals, let alone infections. Infection by animals might be possible, as by cats and ferrets kept as pets. These results indicate priority domains for individual and collective measures. The wide divergence in outcomes indicates robustness to most modelling and data improvements, hardly leading to major changes in relative exposure potentials. However, models and data can substantially be improved.
