论文标题

粗糙模糊CPD:逐渐变更点检测算法

Rough-Fuzzy CPD: A Gradual Change Point Detection Algorithm

论文作者

Bhaduri, Ritwik, Roy, Subhrajyoty, Pal, Sankar K.

论文摘要

更改点检测是当时间序列的分布显着变化时,发现突然或逐渐变化的问题。尽管与突然相比,没有太多专门针对逐渐变更点的工作来解决更改点检测问题,但有许多复杂的统计算法。在这里,我们提出了一种使用模糊的粗糙集理论来解决更改点检测问题的新方法,该理论能够检测此类渐进的更改点。对于快速计算的数学属性,得出了更改点的粗制估计的表达式。在统计假设检验框架中,在无效假设下得出了对单个更改点和多个变更点的统计量的渐近分布,从而实现了多个更改点检测。已经进行了广泛的仿真研究,以研究如何对简单的原始统计差异衡量,以提高其在逐渐变更点的估计中提高其效率。同样,上述粗糙模糊估计值与信噪比,真实更改点中的高度模糊性以及与超级参数值相关。仿真研究表明,该提出的方法击败了其他模糊方法,以及在检测逐渐变更点的WBS,PELT和BOCD等流行的Crisp方法。使用包括COVID-19的多个现实生活数据集证明了估计值的适用性。我们已经开发了Python软件包“ ROUFCP”,以更广泛地传播方法。

Changepoint detection is the problem of finding abrupt or gradual changes in time series data when the distribution of the time series changes significantly. There are many sophisticated statistical algorithms for solving changepoint detection problem, although there is not much work devoted towards gradual changepoints as compared to abrupt ones. Here we present a new approach to solve changepoint detection problem using fuzzy rough set theory which is able to detect such gradual changepoints. An expression for the rough-fuzzy estimate of changepoints is derived along with its mathematical properties concerning fast computation. In a statistical hypothesis testing framework, asymptotic distribution of the proposed statistic on both single and multiple changepoints is derived under null hypothesis enabling multiple changepoint detection. Extensive simulation studies have been performed to investigate how simple crude statistical measures of disparity can be subjected to improve their efficiency in estimation of gradual changepoints. Also, the said rough-fuzzy estimate is robust to signal-to-noise ratio, high degree of fuzziness in true changepoints and also to hyper parameter values. Simulation studies reveal that the proposed method beats other fuzzy methods and also popular crisp methods like WBS, PELT and BOCD in detecting gradual changepoints. The applicability of the estimate is demonstrated using multiple real-life datasets including Covid-19. We have developed the python package "roufcp" for broader dissemination of the methods.

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