论文标题
建模Covid-19在摩洛哥大流行的传播
Modeling the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Morocco
论文作者
论文摘要
如今，2019年冠状病毒病（Covid-19）对全球公共卫生和经济构成了巨大威胁。不幸的是，这种疾病还没有有效的药物。为此，几个国家采取了多种预防性干预措施，以避免Covid-19的传播。在这里，我们提出了一个延迟的数学模型，以预测摩洛哥Covid-19的流行病学趋势。严格研究了所提出模型的参数估计和灵敏度分析。此外，提供了数值模拟，以测试摩洛哥当局采取的预防措施和策略的有效性，并帮助政策制定者和公共卫生管理局制定此类策略。
Nowadays, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a great threat to public health and economy worldwide. Unfortunately, there is yet no effective drug for this disease. For this, several countries have adopted multiple preventive interventions to avoid the spread of COVID-19. Here, we propose a delayed mathematical model to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco. Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis of the proposed model are rigorously studied. Moreover, numerical simulations are presented in order to test the effectiveness of the preventive measures and strategies that were imposed by the Moroccan authorities and also help policy makers and public health administration to develop such strategies.
