论文标题
建模COVID-19的减速19
Modelling the deceleration of COVID-19 spreading
论文作者
论文摘要
通过表征Covid-19的时间演变，其“速度”（每天的新案例日志）及其变异速率或“加速度”的时间演变，我们表明，在许多国家 /地区，甚至在发布锁定之前就已经下降了。这项功能可能是由于社会意识的提高，可以通过Barnes引入的易感隐藏感染的（SHIR）模型合理化，其中易感人群逐渐填充了一个隐藏的（与病毒隔室隔离）$ H $，从而降低了病毒蔓延的有效性。通过引入部分隐藏机制，例如，由于不可能将一小部分人进入隐藏状态，我们获得了一个模型，尽管仍然很简单，但忠实地又忠实地再现了几个主要国家观察到的不同减速趋势。
By characterising the time evolution of COVID-19 in term of its "velocity" (log of the new cases per day) and its rate of variation, or "acceleration", we show that in many countries there has been a deceleration even before lockdowns were issued. This feature, possibly due to the increase of social awareness, can be rationalised by a susceptible-hidden-infected-recovered (SHIR) model introduced by Barnes, in which a hidden (isolated from the virus) compartment $H$ is gradually populated by susceptible people, thus reducing the effectiveness of the virus spreading. By introducing a partial hiding mechanism, for instance due to the impossibility for a fraction of the population to enter the hidden state, we obtain a model that, although still sufficiently simple, faithfully reproduces the different deceleration trends observed in several major countries.
