论文标题
COVID-19：在隔离到高风险区域后的隔离持续时间
COVID-19: On the quarantine duration after short visits to high-risk regions
论文作者
论文摘要
本文将提出一种简单的蒙特卡洛方法，以提取隔离持续时间的估算值，适用于高风险区域的游客。结果将根据对旅行者偏离感染发生的地方的累积分布函数的上尾的分析，以及当前可能检测到COVID-19感染的时间。如预期的那样，隔离持续时间是感染旅行者分数的降低功能，该功能准备识别为“可接受的风险”。该分析表明，最大$ 5〜 \％$风险（起源于受试者在取消隔离后成为感染性的新感染）可能与最小的隔离持续时间约为八天，$ 1〜％$ $ 1〜％$，大约十二，$ 0.1〜 \％，大约是Sixteen。除非短期（通常为最多三周）的短期分布与本研究所假定的形状显着偏离，否则本分析的结果并不能为缩短大约十天到两周的隔离持续时间提供支持，目前适用于从大多数欧洲国家进入感染风险高的欧洲国家。
A simple Monte-Carlo method will be put forward herein, to enable the extraction of an estimate for the quarantine duration, applicable to visitors to high-risk regions. Results will be obtained on the basis of an analysis of the upper tail of the cumulative distribution function of the time span between the departure of the travellers from the place where the infection occurs and the time instant when COVID-19 infections may currently be detected. As expected, the quarantine duration is a decreasing function of the fraction of the infected travellers, which one is prepared to identify as `acceptable risk'. The analysis suggests that a maximal $5~\%$ risk (of new infections originating from subjects who become infective after their quarantine is lifted) may be associated with a minimal quarantine duration of about eight days, $1~\%$ with about twelve, and $0.1~\%$ with about sixteen. Unless the distribution of the duration of short (typically, up to three weeks) travels departs significantly from the shape assumed in this study, the results of the present analysis do not provide support for the plans to shorten the quarantine duration of about ten days to two weeks, which currently applies to travellers entering most European countries from regions with a high risk of infection.
