论文标题
将动态飞行网络纳入SEIR，以模拟人群之间的移动性
Incorporating Dynamic Flight Network in SEIR to Model Mobility between Populations
论文作者
论文摘要
COVID-19建模的当前努力通常基于标准的隔室模型，例如SEIR及其变化。由于症状前和无症状病例可以通过旅行在人群之间传播疾病，因此将人群之间的流动性纳入流行病学建模非常重要。在这项工作中，我们建议通过基于空中交通量以及源的测试正率来估算进口案例，以修改常用的SEIR模型来解释动态飞行网络。这种称为飞行模型的修改可能会启用1）。由于进口症状和无症状病例而引起的爆发早期发现，2）。对繁殖数的更准确估计和3）。评估旅行限制的影响以及取消这些措施的含义。鉴于我们的世界已经成为互连，拟议的飞行赛对通过这个大流行和下一个大流行至关重要。
Current efforts of modelling COVID-19 are often based on the standard compartmental models such as SEIR and their variations. As pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic cases can spread the disease between populations through travel, it is important to incorporate mobility between populations into the epidemiological modelling. In this work, we propose to modify the commonly-used SEIR model to account for the dynamic flight network, by estimating the imported cases based on the air traffic volume as well as the test positive rate at the source. This modification, called Flight-SEIR, can potentially enable 1). early detection of outbreaks due to imported pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic cases, 2). more accurate estimation of the reproduction number and 3). evaluation of the impact of travel restrictions and the implications of lifting these measures. The proposed Flight-SEIR is essential in navigating through this pandemic and the next ones, given how interconnected our world has become.
