论文标题
美国州的锁定效果：一种人工反事实方法
Lockdown effects in US states: an artificial counterfactual approach
论文作者
论文摘要
我们采用人工反事实方法来评估锁定对美国某些州案件和死亡人数短期演变的影响。为此，我们探讨了美国各州采用锁定政策的不同时机，并将其分为经过治疗和对照组。对于每个处理的状态，我们构建人造反事实。平均而言，如果未实施锁定政策，则反事实累积的案件数量将大两倍。
We adopt an artificial counterfactual approach to assess the impact of lockdowns on the short-run evolution of the number of cases and deaths in some US states. To do so, we explore the different timing in which US states adopted lockdown policies, and divide them among treated and control groups. For each treated state, we construct an artificial counterfactual. On average, and in the very short-run, the counterfactual accumulated number of cases would be two times larger if lockdown policies were not implemented.
