论文标题
预测社会善良
Forecasting for Social Good
论文作者
论文摘要
预测在组织业务战略的发展中起着至关重要的作用。尽管在预测领域进行了大量研究,但重点主要放在预测过程的财务和经济成果上,而不是社会利益。我们在这项研究中的动机是促进后者,以期利用预测过程来促进社会和环境目标,例如平等,社会正义和可持续性。我们指的是预测实践,例如对社会利益的预测(FSG),在这些预测中,对社会和环境的好处比经济和金融成果优先。我们在“甜甜圈理论”的背景下概念化FSG并讨论其范围和界限。我们提出了一些关键属性,这些属性符合FSG的预测过程:它与一个真正的问题有关,它专注于促进社会和环境目标,并将这些问题优先于常规的经济成功衡量,并且具有广泛的社会影响。我们还将FSG定位在有关预测和社会良好实践的更广泛文献中。我们提出了一个FSG成熟框架,以此作为使学者和从业人员在该领域进行研究的手段。最后,我们强调说FSG:(i)不能将其提炼为规定的指南集,(ii)是可扩展的,并且(iii)有可能为促进社会目标做出重大贡献。
Forecasting plays a critical role in the development of organisational business strategies. Despite a considerable body of research in the area of forecasting, the focus has largely been on the financial and economic outcomes of the forecasting process as opposed to societal benefits. Our motivation in this study is to promote the latter, with a view to using the forecasting process to advance social and environmental objectives such as equality, social justice and sustainability. We refer to such forecasting practices as Forecasting for Social Good (FSG) where the benefits to society and the environment take precedence over economic and financial outcomes. We conceptualise FSG and discuss its scope and boundaries in the context of the "Doughnut theory". We present some key attributes that qualify a forecasting process as FSG: it is concerned with a real problem, it is focused on advancing social and environmental goals and prioritises these over conventional measures of economic success, and it has a broad societal impact. We also position FSG in the wider literature on forecasting and social good practices. We propose an FSG maturity framework as the means to engage academics and practitioners with research in this area. Finally, we highlight that FSG: (i) cannot be distilled to a prescriptive set of guidelines, (ii) is scalable, and (iii) has the potential to make significant contributions to advancing social objectives.