论文标题
冬季气候对博特尼亚 - 大西洋地区高速旅客列车的影响
Effects of winter climate on high speed passenger trains in Botnia-Atlantica region
论文作者
论文摘要
恶劣的冬季气候可能会给瑞典的公共部门和私营部门带来各种问题，尤其是在铁路行业的北部。为了更好地了解冬季气候的影响，这项研究调查了冬季气候的影响，包括大气结冰对博特尼亚 - 阿特西加地区高速旅客列车的性能。调查是通过火车运营数据以及2017年1月至2月的天气研究和预测模型的模拟天气数据进行的。 分析了火车性能的两种不同测量值。一个是累积延迟，它可以测量两个连续测量点内的运行时间延迟的增加，另一个是当前延迟，这是与时间表相比，每个测量点的到达时间的延迟。通过COX模型研究了累积延迟，并使用Markov链模型研究了当前的延迟。 结果表明，天气因素会影响火车的性能。其中温度和湿度对累积延迟的发生以及（电流）延迟和未删除状态之间的过渡概率都有重大影响。
Harsh winter climate can cause various problems for both public and private sectors in Sweden, especially in the northern part for railway industry. To have a better understanding of winter climate impacts, this study investigates effects of the winter climate including atmospheric icing on the performance of high speed passenger trains in the Botnia-Atlantica region. The investigation is done with train operational data together with simulated weather data from the Weather Research and Forecast model over January - February 2017. Two different measurements of the train performance are analysed. One is cumulative delay which measures the increment in delay in terms of running time within two consecutive measuring spots, the other is current delay which is the delay in terms of arrival time at each measuring spot compared to the schedule. Cumulative delay is investigated through a Cox model and the current delay is studied using a Markov chain model. The results show that the weather factors have impacts on the train performance. Therein temperature and humidity have significant impacts on both the occurrence of cumulative delay and the transition probabilities between (current) delayed and non-delayed states.
