论文标题
经济和社会系统的复杂性:Covid-19左右的加密货币市场
Complexity in economic and social systems: cryptocurrency market at around COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
社会系统的特征是巨大的连接网络和可能影响这些系统的结构和动态的因素。包括加密货币市场在内的所有金融市场都属于人类活动的经济领域,这似乎是最相互关联和最复杂的。可以从不同的角度研究加密货币市场的复杂性。首先,可以通过多重形式主义研究和量化加密货币汇率和其他加密货币的动力学。其次,可以根据分形分析进行高级互相关分析来研究加密货币和常规资产的耦合和解耦。第三,加密货币市场的内部结构也可以是一个分析的主题,例如利用市场的网络表示。我们根据2019年1月至2020年6月之间记录的数据从所有三个角度了解这一主题。这一时期包括COVID-19的大流行,我们特别关注这一事件,并调查其对市场的结构和动态的影响程度。此外,研究的数据还涵盖了2019年的其他一些重大事件,例如双牛和熊阶段。在整个考虑的间隔中,汇率的回报是多局部性的,具有间歇性双歧度标志,这些标志可能与2019年4月和COVID 2019年4月的牛市市场一开始,这可能与市场上最波动的市场动态相关,这是3月2020年3月2020年的Sin。在这些事件期间,也用于从分布式类型中更改,而没有任何主要的节点,即具有USDT的主要集中式类型。但是,大流行期间的MST拓扑与其他挥发性时期有所不同。
Social systems are characterized by an enormous network of connections and factors that can influence the structure and dynamics of these systems. All financial markets, including the cryptocurrency market, belong to the economical sphere of human activity that seems to be the most interrelated and complex. The cryptocurrency market complexity can be studied from different perspectives. First, the dynamics of the cryptocurrency exchange rates to other cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies can be studied and quantified by means of multifractal formalism. Second, coupling and decoupling of the cryptocurrencies and the conventional assets can be investigated with the advanced cross-correlation analyses based on fractal analysis. Third, an internal structure of the cryptocurrency market can also be a subject of analysis that exploits, for example, a network representation of the market. We approach this subject from all three perspectives based on data recorded between January 2019 and June 2020. This period includes the Covid-19 pandemic and we pay particular attention to this event and investigate how strong its impact on the structure and dynamics of the market was. Besides, the studied data covers a few other significant events like double bull and bear phases in 2019. We show that, throughout the considered interval, the exchange rate returns were multifractal with intermittent signatures of bifractality that can be associated with the most volatile periods of the market dynamics like a bull market onset in April 2019 and the Covid-19 outburst in March 2020. The topology of a minimal spanning tree representation of the market also used to alter during these events from a distributed type without any dominant node to a highly centralized type with a dominating hub of USDT. However, the MST topology during the pandemic differs in some details from other volatile periods.