论文标题

盆地稳定性和限制气候倾斜级联的概念模型中的周期

Basin stability and limit cycles in a conceptual model for climate tipping cascades

论文作者

Wunderling, Nico, Gelbrecht, Maximilian, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Kurths, Jürgen, Donges, Jonathan

论文摘要

气候系统中的小费元素是地球的大型子区域,在全球变暖下可能具有阈值行为,对人类社会的潜在影响很大。在这里,我们研究了一个五个小费元素及其相互作用的子集,它们是在一个概念上且易于扩展的框架中:格陵兰和南极冰盖,大西洋子午倾覆循环(AMOC),El-Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO)和亚马逊雨林。在这个非线性和多稳定系统中,我们执行盆地稳定性分析,以检测其稳定状态及其相关的地球系统弹性。使用这种方法,我们对超过35亿的合奏成员进行了整体且全面的鲁棒性分析。此外,我们研究了一些国家使用新开发的盆地分叉分析方法出现稳定性和振荡的动态制度。我们的结果表明,四个或五个倾斜元件的状态具有最大的盆地量,对于超过工业前气候条件以上4°C以上的大量全球变暖。对于较低的变暖,包括西南极和格陵兰西部的冰片在内的州比其他州配置更高。因此,在我们的模型中,我们发现大型冰盖对于地球系统的弹性特别重要。我们还检测到以罕见参数组合的所有集合成员的0.6%的极限周期的出现。这种极限周期振荡主要发生在格陵兰冰盖和AMOC之间(86%),这是由于它们的负反馈耦合。这些限制周期表明,气候系统中可能危险的内部变异性模式可能在古气候动态中发挥作用,例如在更新世冰河时代周期中展开的动态。

Tipping elements in the climate system are large-scale subregions of the Earth that might possess threshold behavior under global warming with large potential impacts on human societies. Here, we study a subset of five tipping elements and their interactions in a conceptual and easily extendable framework: the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Amazon rainforest. In this nonlinear and multistable system, we perform a basin stability analysis to detect its stable states and their associated Earth system resilience. Using this approach, we perform a system-wide and comprehensive robustness analysis with more than 3.5 billion ensemble members. Further, we investigate dynamic regimes where some of the states lose stability and oscillations appear using a newly developed basin bifurcation analysis methodology. Our results reveal that the state of four or five tipped elements has the largest basin volume for large levels of global warming beyond 4 °C above pre-industrial climate conditions. For lower levels of warming, states including disintegrated ice sheets on West Antarctica and Greenland have higher basin volume than other state configurations. Therefore in our model, we find that the large ice sheets are of particular importance for Earth system resilience. We also detect the emergence of limit cycles for 0.6% of all ensemble members at rare parameter combinations. Such limit cycle oscillations mainly occur between the Greenland Ice Sheet and AMOC (86%), due to their negative feedback coupling. These limit cycles point to possibly dangerous internal modes of variability in the climate system that could have played a role in paleoclimatic dynamics such as those unfolding during the Pleistocene ice age cycles.

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