论文标题
使用电力市场数据实时跟踪GDP：欧洲第一波Covid-19的见解
Tracking GDP in real-time using electricity market data: insights from the first wave of COVID-19 across Europe
论文作者
论文摘要
本文通过分析高频电力市场数据来开发一种实时跟踪冲击（例如自然灾害，金融危机或大流行病）对国内生产总值（GDP）的影响的方法。作为例证，我们估计了大流行第一波中十二个欧洲国家的Covid-19造成的GDP损失。我们的结果几乎与2020年前两个季度的经济衰退的官方统计数据（相关系数为0.98）没有区别，并通过多个鲁棒性测试来验证。但是，与标准的宏观经济指标相比，它们在按时间顺序分类和最新状态更为最新，因此，它们可以提供至关重要的及时信息进行政策评估。我们的结果表明，到目前为止，延迟干预和追求“畜群”并没有成功，因为它们增加了经济中断和死亡率。我们还发现，国际上的协调政策是最大程度地减少NPI的溢出效应的基础。
This paper develops a methodology for tracking in real time the impact of shocks (such as natural disasters, financial crises or pandemics) on gross domestic product (GDP) by analyzing high-frequency electricity market data. As an illustration, we estimate the GDP loss caused by COVID-19 in twelve European countries during the first wave of the pandemic. Our results are almost indistinguishable from the official statistics of the recession during the first two quarters of 2020 (correlation coefficient of 0.98) and are validated by several robustness tests. However, they are also more chronologically disaggregated and up-to-date than standard macroeconomic indicators and, therefore, can provide crucial and timely information for policy evaluation. Our results show that delaying intervention and pursuing 'herd immunity' have not been successful strategies so far, since they increased both economic disruption and mortality. We also find that coordinating policies internationally is fundamental for minimizing spillover effects from NPIs across countries.
