论文标题
隔离模型的模型降低，流行病学预测。适用于19号大流行
Epidemiological Forecasting with Model Reduction of Compartmental Models. Application to the COVID-19 pandemic
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一种预测方法，用于在区域和区域分辨率的两周地平线上预测流行病学健康系列。该方法基于降低参数隔室模型的模型顺序，旨在适应少量的卫生数据。该方法的效率显示在预测被感染和去除的人数的情况下，在法国的两次大流行波浪中，大约在2020年2月至11月之间进行的。数字结果说明了该方法的潜在潜力。
We propose a forecasting method for predicting epidemiological health series on a two-week horizon at the regional and interregional resolution. The approach is based on model order reduction of parametric compartmental models, and is designed to accommodate small amount of sanitary data. The efficiency of the method is shown in the case of the prediction of the number of infected and removed people during the two pandemic waves of COVID-19 in France, which have taken place approximately between February and November 2020. Numerical results illustrate the promising potential of the approach.
