论文标题
随机降低的高效大都市的正向模型 - 悬挂MCMC,并应用于地下流体流量和电容层析成像
Randomized Reduced Forward Models for Efficient Metropolis--Hastings MCMC, with Application to Subsurface Fluid Flow and Capacitance Tomography
论文作者
论文摘要
马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)的贝叶斯建模和计算推断是大规模不确定性量化的原则性框架,尽管以最简单的形式实施,以模拟MCMC的每个迭代中的准确计算机模型时,通过计算成本限制了实践。延迟的接收大都会(Hastings MCMC)利用了向前地图的减少模型,以降低每次迭代的计算成本,尽管一定会降低统计效率,而统计效率可能不会导致计算估算的计算成本降低到所需的精度。通过维持每次迭代的低成本,但也避免明显的统计效率损失,可以将降低的模型随机化可显着提高计算效率。随机图是通过后验自适应调整的随机和局部校正的确定性还原模型来构建的。同等地,可以将近似后验分布视为由修改的似然函数诱导,可与还原的地图一起使用,并调整了参数以优化近似质量到正确的后验分布。自适应MCMC算法的条件允许实用的近似值和算法保证了目标分布的千古性。在地热储层和电容层析成像的大规模数值模型的校准示例中证明了良好的统计和计算效率。
Bayesian modelling and computational inference by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a principled framework for large-scale uncertainty quantification, though is limited in practice by computational cost when implemented in the simplest form that requires simulating an accurate computer model at each iteration of the MCMC. The delayed acceptance Metropolis--Hastings MCMC leverages a reduced model for the forward map to lower the compute cost per iteration, though necessarily reduces statistical efficiency that can, without care, lead to no reduction in the computational cost of computing estimates to a desired accuracy. Randomizing the reduced model for the forward map can dramatically improve computational efficiency, by maintaining the low cost per iteration but also avoiding appreciable loss of statistical efficiency. Randomized maps are constructed by a posteriori adaptive tuning of a randomized and locally-corrected deterministic reduced model. Equivalently, the approximated posterior distribution may be viewed as induced by a modified likelihood function for use with the reduced map, with parameters tuned to optimize the quality of the approximation to the correct posterior distribution. Conditions for adaptive MCMC algorithms allow practical approximations and algorithms that have guaranteed ergodicity for the target distribution. Good statistical and computational efficiencies are demonstrated in examples of calibration of large-scale numerical models of geothermal reservoirs and electrical capacitance tomography.