论文标题

基于模型的方法来分析老年居民核白内障的患病率

Model-based approach for analyzing prevalence of nuclear cataracts in elderly residents

论文作者

Kodera, Sachiko, Hirata, Akimasa, Miura, Fumiaki, Rashed, Essam A., Hatsusaka, Natsuko, Yamamoto, Naoki, Kubo, Eri, Sasaki, Hiroshi

论文摘要

最近的流行病学研究假设,皮质白内障的患病率与紫外线辐射密切相关。但是,热带地区老年人的核白内障患病率要高于温带地区。引起核白内障的主要因素已广泛争论。在这项研究中,在热带和温带地区,由于暴露于环境条件而导致的镜头的温度升高在50-60岁的受试者中进行了计算量化,这构成了体温调节的差异。扩展了一个热带调节反应模型,以考虑在热带地区的老年人。计算了亚洲五个城市不同天气条件的镜头温度的时间过程。镜头的中部和后部分周围的温度较高,这与核白内障的位置相吻合。尽管每日最高温度可比,但镜头中较高温度的持续时间各不相同。观察到核白内障的患病率与透镜中计算的累积热剂量之间观察到很强的相关性(调整后的R2> 0.85)。我们建议使用累积热剂量来评估核白内障的患病率。根据天气数据计算的新指标,累积湿块球体温度对于不同城市的实际评估很有用。

Recent epidemiological studies have hypothesized that the prevalence of cortical cataracts is closely related to ultraviolet radiation. However, the prevalence of nuclear cataracts is higher in elderly people in tropical areas than in temperate areas. The dominant factors inducing nuclear cataracts have been widely debated. In this study, the temperature increase in the lens due to exposure to ambient conditions was computationally quantified in subjects of 50-60 years of age in tropical and temperate areas, accounting for differences in thermoregulation. A thermoregulatory response model was extended to consider elderly people in tropical areas. The time course of lens temperature for different weather conditions in five cities in Asia was computed. The temperature was higher around the mid and posterior part of the lens, which coincides with the position of the nuclear cataract. The duration of higher temperatures in the lens varied, although the daily maximum temperatures were comparable. A strong correlation (adjusted R2 > 0.85) was observed between the prevalence of nuclear cataract and the computed cumulative thermal dose in the lens. We propose the use of a cumulative thermal dose to assess the prevalence of nuclear cataracts. Cumulative wet-bulb globe temperature, a new metric computed from weather data, would be useful for practical assessment in different cities.

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