论文标题
基于相对效应大小的复制成功评估
The assessment of replication success based on relative effect size
论文作者
论文摘要
复制研究越来越多地进行确认原始发现。但是,没有建立的标准如何评估复制成功,实际上使用了许多不同的方法。本文的目的是完善和扩展最近提出的反向bayes方法,以分析复制研究。我们展示了该方法与相对效应大小,复制与原始效应估计的比率直接相关。这种观点导致了一项新的提案,以重新校准复制成功评估,即黄金水平。重新校准可确保仅当复制效应估计值大于原始研究时,才能实现重大研究的重大研究复制成功。然后,如果原始研究很重要,并且复制样本量足够大,那么复制成功的条件功率就可以采取任何理想的值。与需要原始研究和复制研究的统计意义的标准方法相比,黄金级的复制成功可在项目功率方面均匀提高,如果复制样本量不小于原始的,则可以控制I型错误率。来自四个大型复制项目的数据的应用表明,新方法可以提出更适当的推论,因为与原始估算相比,它会惩罚复制估算的收缩,同时确保两种效应估计值都足够自行说服。
Replication studies are increasingly conducted in order to confirm original findings. However, there is no established standard how to assess replication success and in practice many different approaches are used. The purpose of this paper is to refine and extend a recently proposed reverse-Bayes approach for the analysis of replication studies. We show how this method is directly related to the relative effect size, the ratio of the replication to the original effect estimate. This perspective leads to a new proposal to recalibrate the assessment of replication success, the golden level. The recalibration ensures that for borderline significant original studies replication success can only be achieved if the replication effect estimate is larger than the original one. Conditional power for replication success can then take any desired value if the original study is significant and the replication sample size is large enough. Compared to the standard approach to require statistical significance of both the original and replication study, replication success at the golden level offers uniform gains in project power and controls the Type-I error rate if the replication sample size is not smaller than the original one. An application to data from four large replication projects shows that the new approach leads to more appropriate inferences, as it penalizes shrinkage of the replication estimate compared to the original one, while ensuring that both effect estimates are sufficiently convincing on their own.