论文标题

强大的MPC,并通过数据驱动的需求预测频率调节

Robust MPC with data-driven demand forecasting for frequency regulation with heat pumps

论文作者

Bünning, Felix, Warrington, Joseph, Heer, Philipp, Smith, Roy S., Lygeros, John

论文摘要

随着与电网相关的挥发性可再生能源的增加,以及基于化石燃料的发电厂的逐步淘汰,对频率调节的需求增加。在需求方面,通过利用其热惯性,可以通过配备电动加热或冷却系统的建筑物或地区提供频率调节服务。现有的利用这一潜力的方法通常依赖于动态建筑模型,在实践中,获得和维护可能具有挑战性。结果,这种系统的实际实现是稀缺的。此外,积极控制建筑物需要广泛的控制基础设施,并可能在地区能源系统中引起隐私问题。在此激励的情况下,我们利用缓冲区存储的热惯性来储备,从而减少了建筑模型以在此处进行预测。通过基于强大的模型预测控制,仿射政策以及基于人工神经网络的供暖需求预测与在线校正方法相结合,我们提供频率调节储备,并使用组成热泵和缓冲区存储的系统保持用户舒适性。尽管强大的方法可以确保乘员舒适,但使用仿射政策会减少干扰不确定性对系统状态的影响。在与真正的区域式建筑能源系统进行的首个实验中,我们证明该计划能够在各种条件下提供储备,并在满足连接建筑物的供暖需求的同时跟踪监管信号。 13.4%的消耗电力是灵活的。在其他数值研究中,我们证明,使用仿射策略会大大降低成本函数并增加所提供的储量量,并且与无所不知的控制系统相比,我们研究了次要的次数。

With the increased amount of volatile renewable energy sources connected to the electricity grid, and the phase-out of fossil fuel based power plants, there is an increased need for frequency regulation. On the demand side, frequency regulation services can be offered by buildings or districts that are equipped with electric heating or cooling systems, by exploiting their thermal inertia. Existing approaches for tapping into this potential typically rely on dynamic building models, which in practice can be challenging to obtain and maintain. As a result, practical implementations of such systems are scarce. Moreover, actively controlling buildings requires extensive control infrastructure and may cause privacy concerns in district energy systems. Motivated by this, we exploit the thermal inertia of buffer storage for reserves, reducing the building models to demand forecasts here. By combining a control scheme based on Robust Model Predictive Control, with affine policies, and heating demand forecasting based on Artificial Neural Networks with online correction methods, we offer frequency regulation reserves and maintain user comfort with a system comprising a heat pump and buffer storage. While the robust approach ensures occupant comfort, the use of affine policies reduces the effect of disturbance uncertainty on the system state. In a first-of-its-kind experiment with a real district-like building energy system, we demonstrate that the scheme is able to offer reserves in a variety of conditions and track a regulation signal while meeting the heating demand of the connected buildings. 13.4% of the consumed electricity is flexible. In additional numerical studies, we demonstrate that using affine policies significantly decreases the cost function and increases the amount of offered reserves and we investigate the suboptimality in comparison to an omniscient control system.

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