论文标题

使用SVR-GARCH-KDE混合动力车,数据驱动的价值预测

Data driven value-at-risk forecasting using a SVR-GARCH-KDE hybrid

论文作者

Lux, Marius, Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, Lessmann, Stefan

论文摘要

适当的风险管理对于确保金融机构的竞争力和经济稳定至关重要。一种广泛使用的财务风险措施是价值风险(VAR)。基于线性和参数模型的VAR估计值可能导致偏见的结果,甚至由于时间变化的波动性,偏斜性和财务回报率系列的嗜血率而低估了风险。本文提出了一个非线性和非参数框架,以预测通过以纯粹数据驱动的方法克服参数模型的缺点而引起的。平均和波动率是通过支持矢量回归(SVR)建模的,其中波动率模型是由标准的广义自动回归有条件异方差(GARCH)公式进行的。基于此,通过应用内核密度估计(KDE)得出VAR。这种方法允许灵活的损失分配的尾巴形状,适应广泛的尾巴事件,并能够捕获有关平均值和波动性的复杂结构。 将SVR-GARCH-KDE混合动力车与标准,指数和阈值GARCH模型以及不同的误差分布进行了比较。为了检查不同市场的绩效,为不同的财务指数生产了一日和十天的预测。使用基于似然比的测试框架进行间隔预测的模型评估和对卓越预测能力的测试表明,SVR-Garch-KDE混合动力与基准模型具有竞争力,并减少了潜在的损失,尤其是对于十日预测的预测。尤其是与正态分布相结合的模型的系统性优于表现。

Appropriate risk management is crucial to ensure the competitiveness of financial institutions and the stability of the economy. One widely used financial risk measure is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR estimates based on linear and parametric models can lead to biased results or even underestimation of risk due to time varying volatility, skewness and leptokurtosis of financial return series. The paper proposes a nonlinear and nonparametric framework to forecast VaR that is motivated by overcoming the disadvantages of parametric models with a purely data driven approach. Mean and volatility are modeled via support vector regression (SVR) where the volatility model is motivated by the standard generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) formulation. Based on this, VaR is derived by applying kernel density estimation (KDE). This approach allows for flexible tail shapes of the profit and loss distribution, adapts for a wide class of tail events and is able to capture complex structures regarding mean and volatility. The SVR-GARCH-KDE hybrid is compared to standard, exponential and threshold GARCH models coupled with different error distributions. To examine the performance in different markets, one-day-ahead and ten-days-ahead forecasts are produced for different financial indices. Model evaluation using a likelihood ratio based test framework for interval forecasts and a test for superior predictive ability indicates that the SVR-GARCH-KDE hybrid performs competitive to benchmark models and reduces potential losses especially for ten-days-ahead forecasts significantly. Especially models that are coupled with a normal distribution are systematically outperformed.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源