论文标题

停止时钟:超时效果是真实的吗?

Stop the Clock: Are Timeout Effects Real?

论文作者

Assis, Niander, Assunção, Renato, Vaz-De-Melo, Pedro O. S.

论文摘要

超时是用于传达策略变化,为玩家休息或停止游戏中的负面流程的游戏中短暂的中断。无论出于何种原因,教练都希望在超时后的团队表现会有所改善。但是,这些超时的效果如何?将超时之前和之后的分数之间的差异的简单平均值用于证明存在效果,并且具有很大的作用。我们声称这些统计平均值不是适当的证据,需要更合理的方法。我们使用大量的NBA逐个播放表的数据集应用了正式的因果框架,并在因果图中提取了关于数据生成过程的假设。使用不同的匹配技术来估计超时的因果效应,我们得出结论,超时对团队的表现没有影响。实际上,由于当对方球队得分更高时,大多数超时都会被称为,因此之后的时刻类似于该团队的表现的改善,但这只是自然而然的比赛趋势,即恢复平均状态。这是统计学家所说的对平均现象的回归的另一个例子。

Timeout is a short interruption during games used to communicate a change in strategy, to give the players a rest or to stop a negative flow in the game. Whatever the reason, coaches expect an improvement in their team's performance after a timeout. But how effective are these timeouts in doing so? The simple average of the differences between the scores before and after the timeouts has been used as evidence that there is an effect and that it is substantial. We claim that these statistical averages are not proper evidence and a more sound approach is needed. We applied a formal causal framework using a large dataset of official NBA play-by-play tables and drew our assumptions about the data generation process in a causal graph. Using different matching techniques to estimate the causal effect of timeouts, we concluded that timeouts have no effect on teams' performances. Actually, since most timeouts are called when the opposing team is scoring more frequently, the moments that follow resemble an improvement in the team's performance but are just the natural game tendency to return to its average state. This is another example of what statisticians call the regression to the mean phenomenon.

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