论文标题

使用开源工具和数据集评估德国的区域化需求响应潜力

Assessment of the regionalised demand response potential in Germany using an open source tool and dataset

论文作者

Heitkoetter, Wilko, Schyska, Bruno U., Schmidt, Danielle, Medjroubi, Wided, Vogt, Thomas, Agert, Carsten

论文摘要

随着德国可再生能源的扩大,迫在眉睫的网格拥堵事件更频繁地发生。避免限制可再生能源的一种方法是通过需求响应来涵盖多余的进料。由于限制通常是当地现象,在这项工作中,我们确定了401个德国行政区的区域需求响应潜力。负载区域化是基于从人口和就业统计数据,工业设施的位置等的加权因素。使用定期和温度依赖性负载曲线和技术特定参数,载荷转移电位的时间分辨率为15分钟。我们的分析产生了电力加热技术,其潜力最高,其次是住宅电器,商业和工业负载。对于经过考虑的2030场景,力量到气体和电子活动性也造成了巨大的潜力。所有技术的累积负载增加了每个行政区$ 5-470〜MW的潜力。中位价值为$ 25〜MW $,这足以避免减少8种古典风力涡轮机。此外,我们计算了每个地区的负载转移成本倾向曲线。由于每个设施的安装能力最大,因此地区供暖的工业流程和供热的投资成本最低。我们区分了与农村地区相比,柏林市的热泵弹性化的平均投资成本降低了23美元的加热泵的安装能力,从而区分了不同尺寸的类别。大多数被考虑的负载转移技术的可变成本仍保持在削减可再生能源为$ 110〜 \ text {\ euro {}}/mwh $的平均补偿成本下。随着所有结果和开发的代码均在开源许可下发布,可以将它们集成到能源系统模型中。

With the expansion of renewable energies in Germany, imminent grid congestion events occur more often. One approach for avoiding curtailment of renewable energies is to cover excess feed-in by demand response. As curtailment is often a local phenomenon, in this work we determine the regional demand response potential for the 401 German administrative districts. The load regionalisation is based on weighting factors derived from population and employment statistics, locations of industrial facilities, etc. Using periodic and temperature-dependent load profiles and technology specific parameters, load shifting potentials were determined with a temporal resolution of 15 minutes. Our analysis yields that power-to-heat technologies provide the highest potentials, followed by residential appliances, commercial and industrial loads. For the considered 2030 scenario, power-to-gas and e-mobility also contribute a significant potential. The cumulated load increase potential of all technologies ranges from $5 - 470~MW$ per administrative district. The median value is $25~MW$, which would suffice to avoid the curtailment of 8 classical wind turbines. Further, we calculated load shifting cost-potential curves for each district. Industrial processes and power-to-heat in district heating have the lowest load shifting investment cost, due to the largest installed capacities per facility. We distinguished between different size classes of the installed capacity of heat pumps, yielding $23\%$ lower average investment cost for heat pump flexibilisation in the city of Berlin compared to a rural district. The variable costs of most considered load shifting technologies remain under the average compensation costs for curtailment of renewable energies of $110~\text{\euro{}}/MWh$. As all results and the developed code are published under open source licenses, they can be integrated into energy system models.

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