论文标题
动态图和基于多项式混乱的模型,用于触点跟踪数据分析和最佳测试处方
Dynamic graph and polynomial chaos based models for contact tracing data analysis and optimal testing prescription
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项研究中,我们解决了与疾病传播有关的三个重要挑战,例如COVID-19大流行,即(a)(a)向可能暴露的个体提供预警,(b)识别无症状的个体,以及(c)在测试能力时进行最佳测试的处方处方。首先,我们提出了一个基于动态的SEIR流行病学模型,以描述疾病传播的动力学。我们的模型考虑了一个动态网络,该网络可以解释个人随时间的交互作用,例如通过手动或自动接触跟踪获得的网络,并使用扩散反应机制来描述状态动力学。这种动态图模型有助于识别可能向他们提供早期警告的可能暴露/感染的个体,甚至在表现出任何症状和/或无症状之前。此外,当与人口规模相比,测试能力受到限制时,使用流行病学模型对个人健康状态和疾病的可传播性的可靠估计极具挑战性。因此,对于重要的风险评估,以及通过最佳测试处方结束追踪测试环路的估计至关重要。因此,我们提出使用任意多项式混乱扩展(一种用于不确定性定量的流行技术)来表示状态,并量化动态模型中的不确定性。该设计使我们能够分配每个人的状态的不确定性,因此在测试预算受限的情况下优化了测试,以减少总体不确定性。这些工具也可以用来优化疫苗分布,以遏制有限的疫苗时疾病扩散。我们提供了一些模拟结果,以说明提出的框架的性能,并估算不完整的接触跟踪数据的影响。
In this study, we address three important challenges related to disease transmissions such as the COVID-19 pandemic, namely, (a) providing an early warning to likely exposed individuals, (b) identifying individuals who are asymptomatic, and (c) prescription of optimal testing when testing capacity is limited. First, we present a dynamic-graph based SEIR epidemiological model in order to describe the dynamics of the disease propagation. Our model considers a dynamic network that accounts for the interactions between individuals over time, such as the ones obtained by manual or automated contact tracing, and uses a diffusion-reaction mechanism to describe the state dynamics. This dynamic graph model helps identify likely exposed/infected individuals to whom we can provide early warnings, even before they display any symptoms and/or are asymptomatic. Moreover, when the testing capacity is limited compared to the population size, reliable estimation of individual's health state and disease transmissibility using epidemiological models is extremely challenging. Thus, estimation of state uncertainty is paramount for both eminent risk assessment, as well as for closing the tracing-testing loop by optimal testing prescription. Therefore, we propose the use of arbitrary Polynomial Chaos Expansion, a popular technique used for uncertainty quantification, to represent the states, and quantify the uncertainties in the dynamic model. This design enables us to assign uncertainty of the state of each individual, and consequently optimize the testing as to reduce the overall uncertainty given a constrained testing budget. These tools can also be used to optimize vaccine distribution to curb the disease spread when limited vaccines are available. We present a few simulation results that illustrate the performance of the proposed framework, and estimate the impact of incomplete contact tracing data.