论文标题
可允许的任何时间 - valid顺序推断必须依赖于非负胸骨
Admissible anytime-valid sequential inference must rely on nonnegative martingales
论文作者
论文摘要
置信序列,任何时间p值(在本文中称为p过程),并且电子过程都可以在任意停止时间对复合和非参数类别的分布类别进行顺序推断。在研究文献时,人们发现所有这些(完全不同)的核心是识别非负(超级)标准群。因此,在非正式上,即使在复合和非参数设置中,也已知非负(超级)martingales足以\ emph {anytime-valid}顺序推断。我们的核心贡献是表明非负胸围也是普遍的 - 在适当定义\ emph {可接受性}之后,我们表明,所有可接受的置信序列,p过程或电子过程都必须使用非负Martingales。我们的证明利用了几种现代数学工具来进行综合测试和估计问题:Max-Martingales,Snell信封,跨菲斯特诱导和新的Doob-lévyMartingales以先前不认可的方式出现。在非正式的情况下,如果一个人希望执行任何时间 - valid顺序推断,那么任何现有方法都可以使用非负MARTINGALES恢复或主导。我们提供了几个非平凡的例子,特别关注测试对称性,我们的新结构使过去的方法不可接受。我们还证明了Subgaussian Supermartingale是可以接受的。
Confidence sequences, anytime p-values (called p-processes in this paper), and e-processes all enable sequential inference for composite and nonparametric classes of distributions at arbitrary stopping times. Examining the literature, one finds that at the heart of all these (quite different) approaches has been the identification of nonnegative (super)martingales. Thus, informally, nonnegative (super)martingales are known to be sufficient for \emph{anytime-valid} sequential inference, even in composite and nonparametric settings. Our central contribution is to show that nonnegative martingales are also universal -- after appropriately defining \emph{admissibility}, we show that all admissible constructions of confidence sequences, p-processes, or e-processes must necessarily utilize nonnegative martingales. Our proofs utilize several modern mathematical tools for composite testing and estimation problems: max-martingales, Snell envelopes, transfinite induction, and new Doob-Lévy martingales make appearances in previously unencountered ways. Informally, if one wishes to perform anytime-valid sequential inference, then any existing approach can be recovered or dominated using nonnegative martingales. We provide several nontrivial examples, with special focus on testing symmetry, where our new constructions render past methods inadmissible. We also prove the subGaussian supermartingale to be admissible.