论文标题
捍卫P值
Defending the P-value
论文作者
论文摘要
对P值的攻击并不是什么新鲜事物，但是最近的攻击越来越严重。它们来自更多主流来源，其目标扩大，例如完全退休显着性测试的呼吁。尽管含义很好，但我认为这些攻击是误导的：将p值归咎于自然暂定的科学发现试验和错误过程，并假定禁止P值会使过程更清洁，并且会使错误更少。无论暂时，怀疑的科学家仍然必须形成明确的意见，直接向前迈进，并最终向更广泛的社区呈现结果。出于明显的原因，他们不断需要在错误阳性和错误阴性错误之间取得平衡。禁止P值或有意义测试在这一平衡法案中如何有所帮助？似乎很谨慎地说，这种平衡将始终取决于相对成本或错误之间的权衡。这些成本是高度特定的，随着应用区域或调查阶段而有所不同。需要一个经过校准但可调的旋钮，例如由P值给出的旋钮来控制这种平衡。本文提出了详细的论点，以支持P值。
Attacks on the P-value are nothing new, but the recent attacks are increasingly more serious. They come from more mainstream sources, with widening targets such as a call to retire the significance testing altogether. While well meaning, I believe these attacks are nevertheless misdirected: Blaming the P-value for the naturally tentative trial-and-error process of scientific discoveries, and presuming that banning the P-value would make the process cleaner and less error-prone. However tentative, the skeptical scientists still have to form unambiguous opinions, proximately to move forward in their investigations and ultimately to present results to the wider community. With obvious reasons, they constantly need to balance between the false-positive and false-negative errors. How would banning the P-value or significance tests help in this balancing act? It seems trite to say that this balance will always depend on the relative costs or the trade-off between the errors. These costs are highly context specific, varying by area of applications or by stage of investigation. A calibrated but tunable knob, such as that given by the P-value, is needed for controlling this balance. This paper presents detailed arguments in support of the P-value.
