论文标题
点估计，辛普森的悖论和生物科学中的非连接性
Point estimates, Simpson's paradox and nonergodicity in biological sciences
论文作者
论文摘要
现代的生物医学，行为和心理推断对因果关系关系是一种崇高的假设，即代表样本的响应允许对这些样本的各个成员进行预测。在所有相同领域中，最近的经验证据表明对千古假设的系统侵犯。实际上，违反生物医学，行为和心理原因中的人性化恰恰是我们的研究询问背后的灵感。在这里，我们回顾了这些领域的科学进步的长期成本以及一个实用的前进方向。具体而言，我们主张使用统计度量，这些度量本身可以编码测量中的非效率的程度和类型。采取这样的步骤将导致范式转变，从而使研究人员能够研究非平衡的非平衡过程，这些过程表征了生物学和心理行为的创造力和出现。
Modern biomedical, behavioral and psychological inference about cause-effect relationships respects an ergodic assumption, that is, that mean response of representative samples allow predictions about individual members of those samples. Recent empirical evidence in all of the same fields indicates systematic violations of the ergodic assumption. Indeed, violation of ergodicity in biomedical, behavioral and psychological causes is precisely the inspiration behind our research inquiry. Here, we review the long term costs to scientific progress in these domains and a practical way forward. Specifically, we advocate the use of statistical measures that can themselves encode the degree and type of non-ergodicity in measurements. Taking such steps will lead to a paradigm shift, allowing researchers to investigate the nonstationary, far-from-equilibrium processes that characterize the creativity and emergence of biological and psychological behavior.
