论文标题

DeepStCl:用于旅行需求预测的深层时空探测

DeepSTCL: A Deep Spatio-temporal ConvLSTM for Travel Demand Prediction

论文作者

Wang, Dongjie, Yang, Yan, Ning, Shangming

论文摘要

城市资源调度是智慧城市发展的重要组成部分,运输资源是城市资源的主要组成部分。目前,运输资源(例如分布和道路拥堵)等运输资源的一系列问题破坏了日程安排纪律。因此,预测派遣城市资源的旅行需求是重要的。以前,传统的时间序列模型被用于预测旅行需求,例如AR,Arima等。但是,这些方法的预测效率很差,训练时间太长。为了提高性能,使用深度学习来协助预测。但是,大多数深度学习方法仅利用时间依赖性或数据在预测过程中的空间依赖性。为了解决这些局限性,本文提出了一个基于深层时空的探测框架的新型深度学习交通需求预测框架。为了评估框架的性能,设计了一个端到端的深度学习系统,并使用了真实的数据集。此外,提出的方法可以同时捕获时间依赖性和空间依赖性。时空数据的亲密,周期和趋势成分用于三个预测分支。这些分支具有相同的网络结构,但不具有权重。然后,使用线性融合方法来获得最终结果。最后,对成都DIDI订购数据集的实验结果表明,我们的方法以准确性和速度优于传统模型。

Urban resource scheduling is an important part of the development of a smart city, and transportation resources are the main components of urban resources. Currently, a series of problems with transportation resources such as unbalanced distribution and road congestion disrupt the scheduling discipline. Therefore, it is significant to predict travel demand for urban resource dispatching. Previously, the traditional time series models were used to forecast travel demand, such as AR, ARIMA and so on. However, the prediction efficiency of these methods is poor and the training time is too long. In order to improve the performance, deep learning is used to assist prediction. But most of the deep learning methods only utilize temporal dependence or spatial dependence of data in the forecasting process. To address these limitations, a novel deep learning traffic demand forecasting framework which based on Deep Spatio-Temporal ConvLSTM is proposed in this paper. In order to evaluate the performance of the framework, an end-to-end deep learning system is designed and a real dataset is used. Furthermore, the proposed method can capture temporal dependence and spatial dependence simultaneously. The closeness, period and trend components of spatio-temporal data are used in three predicted branches. These branches have the same network structures, but do not share weights. Then a linear fusion method is used to get the final result. Finally, the experimental results on DIDI order dataset of Chengdu demonstrate that our method outperforms traditional models with accuracy and speed.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源