论文标题
Covid-19锁定后墨西哥城的模块化重新激活
Modular Reactivation of Mexico City After COVID-19 Lockdown
论文作者
论文摘要
在Covid-19大流行期间，墨西哥城流行曲线的斜率非常不稳定。我们已经预测，在以上一定阈值返回公共空间以上的人口的一部分时，流行曲线的负面趋势将恢复。这样的预测是基于建模通过移动设备共定位的墨西哥城市接触网络上的流行病学模型来建模经济活动后的经济活动重新激活。我们评估了墨西哥政府开放数据库中有效案件和恢复案件的计数的流行动态。对场景进行了建模，其中通过扫描5％至50％的扫描值将不同百分比的人口重新整合到公共空间。零模型是通过使用Jornada Nacional de Sana Distancia（墨西哥选择性锁定模型）的数据来构建的，其中移动性降低了75％，没有强制性的移动性限制。我们发现，流行病曲线中的新案例峰值很有可能在场景中，其中超过5％的人口重新加入了公共空间。超过50％的人口同步返回将释放出与没有缓解策略的预测的幅度的峰值。通过评估流行动力学的趋势，注册的新病例，住院和新死亡的数量，我们认为在这种情况下，只有选择性措施后的重新激活可能不是最佳的。鉴于需要重新激活经济活动，我们建议考虑采取替代措施，以减少返回公共空间的人们之间的联系。我们评估了“封装”重新激活的工人可以允许更大的人口重新激活，而不会损害流行曲线中所需的趋势。
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the slope of the epidemic curve in Mexico City has been quite unstable. We have predicted that in the case that a fraction of the population above a certain threshold returns to the public space, the negative tendency of the epidemic curve will revert. Such predictions were based on modeling the reactivation of economic activity after lockdown by means of an epidemiological model on a contact network of Mexico City derived from mobile device co-localization. We evaluated the epidemic dynamics considering the tally of active and recovered cases documented in the mexican government's open database. Scenarios were modeled in which different percentages of the population are reintegrated to the public space by scanning values ranging from 5% up to 50%. Null models were built by using data from the Jornada Nacional de Sana Distancia (the Mexican model of elective lockdown) in which there was a mobility reduction of 75% and no mandatory mobility restrictions. We found that a new peak of cases in the epidemic curve was very likely for scenarios in which more than 5% of the population rejoined the public space; The return of more than 50% of the population synchronously will unleash a peak of a magnitude similar to the one that was predicted with no mitigation strategies. By evaluating the tendencies of the epidemic dynamics, the number of new cases registered, new cases hospitalized, and new deaths, we consider that under this scenario, reactivation following only elective measures may not be optimal. Given the need to reactivate economic activities, we suggest to consider alternative measures that allow to diminish the contacts among people returning to the public space. We evaluated that by "encapsulating" reactivated workers may allow a reactivation of a larger fraction of the population without compromising the desired tendency in the epidemic curve.
