论文标题
机器学习如何对宏观经济预测有用?
How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?
论文作者
论文摘要
我们超越“机器学习对宏观经济预测有用?”通过添加“如何”。当前的预测文献集中在将特定变量和视野与特别成功的算法匹配。相比之下,我们研究了基础特征的有用性,而不是标准的宏观经济方法推动ML增益。我们区分了四个所谓的特征(非线性,正则化,交叉验证和替代性损耗函数),并研究了它们在数据丰富和数据贫困环境中的行为。为此,我们设计了允许识别感兴趣的“治疗”影响的实验。我们得出的结论是,(i)非线性是宏观经济预测的真正游戏规则改变者,(ii)标准因子模型仍然是最佳的正则化,(iii)k折交叉验证是最佳实践,(iv)$ l_2 $比$ \ barε$ - ε$ susmentiment sample samme samme samme samme samme samme samme samme samme sample sample sample sample sample。非线性技术的预测收益与高宏观经济不确定性,财务压力和住房泡沫破裂有关。这表明机器学习对于捕获不确定性和金融摩擦的背景下出现的重要非线性,对宏观经济预测很有用。
We move beyond "Is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?" by adding the "how". The current forecasting literature has focused on matching specific variables and horizons with a particularly successful algorithm. In contrast, we study the usefulness of the underlying features driving ML gains over standard macroeconometric methods. We distinguish four so-called features (nonlinearities, regularization, cross-validation and alternative loss function) and study their behavior in both the data-rich and data-poor environments. To do so, we design experiments that allow to identify the "treatment" effects of interest. We conclude that (i) nonlinearity is the true game changer for macroeconomic prediction, (ii) the standard factor model remains the best regularization, (iii) K-fold cross-validation is the best practice and (iv) the $L_2$ is preferred to the $\bar ε$-insensitive in-sample loss. The forecasting gains of nonlinear techniques are associated with high macroeconomic uncertainty, financial stress and housing bubble bursts. This suggests that Machine Learning is useful for macroeconomic forecasting by mostly capturing important nonlinearities that arise in the context of uncertainty and financial frictions.