论文标题
最后两个太阳周期的McMesi的时间和周期性变化；与不同类X射线太阳能耀斑的数量进行比较
Temporal and Periodic Variation of the MCMESI for the Last Two Solar Cycles; Comparison with the Number of Different Class X-Ray Solar Flares
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项研究中，我们比较了最后两个太阳能周期（周期23和24）的最大CME速度指数（MCMESI）的时间和周期性变化以及不同类（C，M和X）太阳X射线耀斑的数量（C，M和X）。为了获得MCMESI和太阳耀斑数之间的相关性，将互相关分析应用于每月数据集。还使用2009年至2018年的每日数据进行了多锥度方法（MTM）和Morlet小波分析方法的所有数据集的周期性行为。为了评估我们的小波分析跨波小波变换（XWT）和小波变换相干性（WTC）方法。通过收敛交叉映射（CCM）方法进一步研究了数据集之间的因果关系。在我们的分析结果中，我们发现了以下内容； 1）与周期23相比，在太阳周期24期间，C类X射线耀斑数量增加了约16％，而所有其他数据集则减少； McMesi减少了约16％，M和X类耀斑的数量减少了约32％。 2）所有X射线太阳耀斑类别都与McMesi均显着正相关。尽管McMesi和C类耀斑之间的相关性来自一般太阳周期趋势，但它主要是由于X类耀斑的数据的波动而引起的。 3）通常，所有级别的耀斑数量和McMesi都显示出相似的周期性行为。 4）MCMESI中检测到的546天的周期性可能不是太阳能起源，或者至少太阳耀斑不是该周期性的来源。 5）与X类太阳耀斑相比，C和M类太阳耀斑对McMesi具有更强的致病作用。但是，唯一的双向因果关系是在McMesi和C类耀斑数之间获得的。
In this study we compared the temporal and periodic variations of the Maximum CME Speed Index (MCMESI) and the number of different class (C, M, and X) solar X-Ray flares for the last two solar cycles (Cycle 23 and 24). To obtain the correlation between the MCMESI and solar flare numbers the cross correlation analysis was applied to monthly data sets. Also to investigate the periodic behavior of all data sets the Multi Taper Method (MTM) and the Morlet wavelet analysis method were performed with daily data from 2009 to 2018. To evaluate our wavelet analysis Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT) and Wavelet Transform Coherence (WTC) methods were performed. Causal relationships between datasets were further examined by Convergence Cross Mapping (CCM) method. In results of our analysis we found followings; 1) The C class X-Ray flare numbers increased about 16 % during the solar cycle 24 compared to cycle 23, while all other data sets decreased; the MCMESI decreased about 16 % and the number of M and X class flares decreased about 32 %. 2) All the X-Ray solar flare classes show remarkable positive correlation with the MCMESI. While the correlation between the MCMESI and C class flares comes from the general solar cycle trend, it mainly results from the fluctuations in the data in case of the X class flares. 3) In general, all class flare numbers and the MCMESI show similar periodic behavior. 4) The 546 days periodicity detected in the MCMESI may not be of solar origin or at least the solar flares are not the source of this periodicity. 5) C and M Class solar flares have a stronger causative effect on the MCMESI compared to X class solar flares. However the only bidirectional causal relationship is obtained between the MCMESI and C class flare numbers.
