论文标题
压载水法规对国际贸易，运输模式和全球经济的潜在影响：综合运输和经济建模评估
Potential impacts of ballast water regulations on international trade, shipping patterns, and the global economy: An integrated transportation and economic modeling assessment
论文作者
论文摘要
旨在减少水生物入侵的全球压载水管理法规需要采取行动，以增加运输成本。我们采用综合运输成本和全球经济建模方法来研究压载水法规对双边贸易，国民经济和运输模式的影响。鉴于可能需要在物种入侵的区域热点处进行更严格的监管，因此这项工作考虑了两种压载水处理政策方案：实施当前的国际法规，以及可能针对往返美国船只的船只而面临当前标准的更严格的区域法规。我们发现，在两种情况下，压载水管理合规成本都会导致整体上对国际贸易和国民经济的负面影响。但是，适用于美国港口的更严格的法规预计将对几个国家的几种特定商品的双边贸易产生巨大的负面影响。贸易转移导致美国进口某些产品的进口减少，导致较小的经济福利损失。
Global ballast water management regulations aiming to decrease aquatic species invasion require actions that can increase shipping costs. We employ an integrated shipping cost and global economic modeling approach to investigate the impacts of ballast water regulations on bilateral trade, national economies, and shipping patterns. Given the potential need for more stringent regulation at regional hotspots of species invasions, this work considers two ballast water treatment policy scenarios: implementation of current international regulations, and a possible stricter regional regulation that targets ships traveling to and from the United States while other vessels continue to face current standards. We find that ballast water management compliance costs under both scenarios lead to modest negative impacts on international trade and national economies overall. However, stricter regulations applied to U.S. ports are expected to have large negative impacts on bilateral trade of several specific commodities for a few countries. Trade diversion causes decreased U.S. imports of some products, leading to minor economic welfare losses.
