论文标题
自1820年以来由全球历史系列验证的基于能量的宏观经济模型
An energy-based macroeconomic model validated by global historical series since 1820
论文作者
论文摘要
最近两个世纪的全球历史系列可用于初级能源消耗（PEC）和国内生产总值（GDP）。基于对数据的彻底分析，我们提出了一种新的简单的宏观经济模型，从而为实力推动了经济能力。从1820年到1920年，全球PEC与世界GDP之间的线性性为基本方程式是合理的，其中PEC最初结合了不熟练的人工劳动，这些人工劳动消耗并转化了食物中的能量。在一致的模型中，物理资本和人力资本都由PEC喂养，并代表了一种存储能源的形式。在接下来的一个世纪，从1920年到2016年，GDP的增长比PEC快。两个变量的准线性周期通过不同的跳跃分开，可以将其解释为自由基技术的变化。 GDP与PEC比率累积了改变游戏规则的创新，平均增长率与PEC成正比。这些结果是建模和对气候危机和能源过渡的政治管理的替代策略。
Global historical series spanning the last two centuries recently became available for primary energy consumption (PEC) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Based on a thorough analysis of the data, we propose a new, simple macroeconomic model whereby physical power is fueling economic power. From 1820 to 1920, the linearity between global PEC and world GDP justifies basic equations where, originally, PEC incorporates unskilled human labor that consumes and converts energy from food. In a consistent model, both physical capital and human capital are fed by PEC and represent a form of stored energy. In the following century, from 1920 to 2016, GDP grows quicker than PEC. Periods of quasi-linearity of the two variables are separated by distinct jumps, which can be interpreted as radical technology shifts. The GDP to PEC ratio accumulates game-changing innovation, at an average growth rate proportional to PEC. These results seed alternative strategies for modeling and for political management of the climate crisis and the energy transition.
