论文标题
天气和气候的机器学习是世界的
Machine learning for weather and climate are worlds apart
论文作者
论文摘要
现代天气和气候模型具有共同的遗产,甚至通常是组成部分,但是它们以不同的方式用于回答根本上不同的问题。因此,尝试使用机器学习模仿它们应该反映这一点。尽管使用机器学习效仿天气预报模型是一项相对较新的努力,但气候模型仿真的历史悠久。这主要是因为虽然天气建模是一个初始条件问题,它密切取决于大气的当前状态,但气候建模主要是边界条件问题。因此,为了模仿气候对不同驱动因素的响应,对大气的全部动力学演变的表示既不是必需的,也不是理想的。气候科学家通常也对不同的问题感兴趣。实际上,模拟稳态气候反应已有很多年了,并提供了显着的速度增加,从而可以解决逆问题,例如参数估计。然而,大型数据集,非线性关系和有限的培训数据使气候成为一个充满有趣的机器学习挑战的领域。 在这里,我试图制定气候模型仿真的当前状态,并证明尽管有一些挑战,但最近的机器学习进展如何为创建有用的气候统计模型提供了新的机会。
Modern weather and climate models share a common heritage, and often even components, however they are used in different ways to answer fundamentally different questions. As such, attempts to emulate them using machine learning should reflect this. While the use of machine learning to emulate weather forecast models is a relatively new endeavour there is a rich history of climate model emulation. This is primarily because while weather modelling is an initial condition problem which intimately depends on the current state of the atmosphere, climate modelling is predominantly a boundary condition problem. In order to emulate the response of the climate to different drivers therefore, representation of the full dynamical evolution of the atmosphere is neither necessary, or in many cases, desirable. Climate scientists are typically interested in different questions also. Indeed emulating the steady-state climate response has been possible for many years and provides significant speed increases that allow solving inverse problems for e.g. parameter estimation. Nevertheless, the large datasets, non-linear relationships and limited training data make Climate a domain which is rich in interesting machine learning challenges. Here I seek to set out the current state of climate model emulation and demonstrate how, despite some challenges, recent advances in machine learning provide new opportunities for creating useful statistical models of the climate.