论文标题
质量测试和主动影响流行病
Mass testing and proactiveness affect epidemic spreading
论文作者
论文摘要
当病原体在其等级中含有无症状表型时,对疾病的检测和管理变得非常复杂,这在最近的Covid-19-19大流行期间很明显。在易感的 - 感染 - 恢复的死者(SIRD)动力学的范式下,已经对疾病的扩散进行了广泛的研究。各种游戏理论方法也解决了疾病的传播,其中许多方法将S,I,R和D视为策略,而不是国家。值得注意的是,上述方法的大多数研究都无法解释疾病的症状或无症状方面的区别。众所周知,诸如洗手,戴口罩和社交距离之类的预防措施会大大减轻许多传染性疾病的传播。在此,我们认为采取了策略和对待S,I,R和D等预防措施。我们还试图捕获各种网络拓扑上有症状性和无症状疾病引起的流行病扩散的差异。通过广泛的计算机模拟,我们研究了维持预防措施的成本以及人口中的群众测试程度会影响社会责任的人的最终部分。我们观察到,缺乏质量测试可能会导致无症状疾病的大流行。网络拓扑似乎也起着重要作用。我们进一步观察到,积极主动的个体的最终部分取决于感染和主动个体的初始部分。另外,边缘密度可以显着影响整体结果。我们的发现与从持续的Covid-19大流行中学到的经验教训相吻合。
The detection and management of diseases become quite complicated when pathogens contain asymptomatic phenotypes amongst their ranks, as evident during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Spreading of diseases has been studied extensively under the paradigm of Susceptible - Infected - Recovered - Deceased (SIRD) dynamics. Various game-theoretic approaches have also addressed disease spread, many of which consider S, I, R, and D as strategies rather than as states. Remarkably, most studies from the above approaches do not account for the distinction between the symptomatic or asymptomatic aspect of the disease. It is well-known that precautionary measures like washing hands, wearing masks and social distancing significantly mitigate the spread of many contagious diseases. Herein, we consider the adoption of such precautions as strategies and treat S, I, R, and D as states. We also attempt to capture the differences in epidemic spreading arising from symptomatic and asymptomatic diseases on various network topologies. Through extensive computer simulations, we examine that the cost of maintaining precautionary measures as well as the extent of mass testing in a population affects the final fraction of socially responsible individuals. We observe that the lack of mass testing could potentially lead to a pandemic in case of asymptomatic diseases. Network topology also seems to play an important role. We further observe that the final fraction of proactive individuals depends on the initial fraction of both infected as well as proactive individuals. Additionally, edge density can significantly influence the overall outcome. Our findings are in broad agreement with the lessons learnt from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.