论文标题
PermuteAttack:机器学习信用记分卡的反事实解释
PermuteAttack: Counterfactual Explanation of Machine Learning Credit Scorecards
论文作者
论文摘要
本文是有关验证和解释机器学习(ML)模型的新方向和方法的注释,用于金融零售信用评分。我们提出的框架从人工智能(AI)安全性和对抗性ML领域中汲取了动力,在这种情况下,在面对压倒性复杂性的情况下,需要证明ML算法的性能,这构成了重新思考模型架构选择,灵敏度分析和压力测试的传统概念的需求。我们的观点是,从AI安全域分离时,对抗性扰动的现象纯粹具有算法根源,并且属于模型风险评估的范围。我们提出了一个基于对抗性数据的对抗性示例的模型批评和解释框架。在此上下文中给定实例的一个反事实示例定义为从估计的数据分布中采样的合成生成的数据点,该数据点通过模型以不同的方式处理。反事实示例可用于提供模型行为的黑框实例级别的解释,并研究模型性能恶化的输入空间中的区域。在图像和自然语言处理(NLP)域中对生成算法的对抗示例进行了广泛的研究。但是,大多数财务数据都以表格格式出现,并且在此类数据集中对现有技术的幼稚应用会生成不现实的样本。在本文中,我们提出了一种反事实示例生成方法,能够处理包括离散和分类变量在内的表格数据。我们提出的算法使用基于遗传算法的无梯度优化,因此适用于任何分类模型。
This paper is a note on new directions and methodologies for validation and explanation of Machine Learning (ML) models employed for retail credit scoring in finance. Our proposed framework draws motivation from the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) security and adversarial ML where the need for certifying the performance of the ML algorithms in the face of their overwhelming complexity poses a need for rethinking the traditional notions of model architecture selection, sensitivity analysis and stress testing. Our point of view is that the phenomenon of adversarial perturbations when detached from the AI security domain, has purely algorithmic roots and fall within the scope of model risk assessment. We propose a model criticism and explanation framework based on adversarially generated counterfactual examples for tabular data. A counterfactual example to a given instance in this context is defined as a synthetically generated data point sampled from the estimated data distribution which is treated differently by a model. The counterfactual examples can be used to provide a black-box instance-level explanation of the model behaviour as well as studying the regions in the input space where the model performance deteriorates. Adversarial example generating algorithms are extensively studied in the image and natural language processing (NLP) domains. However, most financial data come in tabular format and naive application of the existing techniques on this class of datasets generates unrealistic samples. In this paper, we propose a counterfactual example generation method capable of handling tabular data including discrete and categorical variables. Our proposed algorithm uses a gradient-free optimization based on genetic algorithms and therefore is applicable to any classification model.