论文标题
建模亲社会意识对COVID-19动力学的影响：哥伦比亚的案例研究
Modeling the effects of prosocial awareness on COVID-19 dynamics: A case study on Colombia
论文作者
论文摘要
持续的19日大流行影响了地球上大多数国家。它已成为一场大流行病爆发，全球超过2400万的感染和8.4万人死亡。在这项研究中，我们考虑了有关COVID-19传播的数学模型，具有亲社会意识效应。提出的模型可以根据不同的参数条件具有四个平衡状态。研究了无知，无疾病平衡的本地和全球稳定条件。使用Lyapunov函数理论和LaSalle不变性原理，在某些参数约束下，无病平衡在全球渐近稳定。出现了独特意识，无独特意识的存在和独特的地方性平衡。我们校准我们提出的模型参数，以适应哥伦比亚的日常病例和死亡。敏感性分析表明，与易感意识有关的传播率和学习因素对于减少疾病相关死亡至关重要。最后，我们评估了爆发过程中亲社会意识的影响，并将这种策略与流行的控制措施进行比较。结果表明，亲社会意识具有使曲线变平的竞争潜力。
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has affected most of the countries on Earth. It has become a pandemic outbreak with more than 24 million confirmed infections and above 840 thousand deaths worldwide. In this study, we consider a mathematical model on COVID-19 transmission with the prosocial awareness effect. The proposed model can have four equilibrium states based on different parametric conditions. The local and global stability conditions for awareness free, disease-free equilibrium is studied. Using Lyapunov function theory and LaSalle Invariance Principle, the disease-free equilibrium is shown globally asymptotically stable under some parametric constraints. The existence of unique awareness free, endemic equilibrium and unique endemic equilibrium is presented. We calibrate our proposed model parameters to fit daily cases and deaths from Colombia. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the transmission rate and learning factor related to awareness of susceptibles are very crucial for reduction in disease related deaths. Finally, we assess the impact of prosocial awareness during the outbreak and compare this strategy with popular control measures. Results indicate that prosocial awareness has competitive potential to flatten the curve.
