论文标题
通过工资增长率阈值改革基于州的远期指导：FRB/美国模拟的证据
Reforming the State-Based Forward Guidance through Wage Growth Rate Threshold: Evidence from FRB/US Simulations
论文作者
论文摘要
我已经分析了埃文斯在基于国家的远期指导中的实用性以及改革它的可能方法。我检查了失业率中存在的偏见，测量错误和其他局限性以及埃文斯规则中的通货膨胀率。使用时间序列分析，我校准了ECI工资增长的阈值和人口比率，并研究了其他劳动利用变量之间的关系。然后，我施加了各种冲击，并构建了冲动响应函数，以对比在三种情况下的八个宏观经济变量的路径。结果表明，在工资增长率方案下，联邦资金利率比目前的埃文斯规则提前提高。
I have analyzed the practicality of the Evans Rule in the state based forward guidance and possible ways to reform it. I examined the biases, measurement errors, and other limitations extant in the unemployment and the inflation rate in the Evans Rule. Using time series analysis, I calibrated the thresholds of ECI wage growth and the employment to population ratio and investigated the relationship between other labor utilization variables. Then I imposed various shocks and constructed impulse response functions to contrast the paths of eight macroeconomic variables under three scenarios. The results suggest that under the wage growth rate scenario, the federal funds rate lift off earlier than under the current Evans Rule.
