论文标题
城市铁路系统中的病毒传播风险：基于微观模拟时空特征的分析
Virus Transmission Risk in Urban Rail Systems: A Microscopic Simulation-based Analysis of Spatio-temporal Characteristics
论文作者
论文摘要
公共交通系统中的空中疾病的传播风险是一个问题。本文提出了一个经过修改的Wells-Riley模型，用于公共交通系统中的风险分析，以捕获乘客流量特征，包括登机摄入量，降落乘客和感染者数量的空间和时间模式。该模型可用于评估总体风险，这是OD流，实际操作以及诸如戴面膜戴和通风等因素的函数。该模型与地铁操作（Simmetro）的微观模拟模型集成在一起。使用地铁系统中的实际数据，案例研究探讨了不同因素对传播风险的影响，包括戴面膜，通风率，疾病的传染性水平和携带者率。通常，戴面膜和通风在各种需求水平，传染性水平和载体率下都是有效的。戴面膜在减轻风险方面更有效。还评估了对操作和服务频率的影响，强调了在降低传输风险方面保持可靠的，频繁操作的重要性。还探索了风险空间模式，突出了风险较高的位置。
Transmission risk of air-borne diseases in public transportation systems is a concern. The paper proposes a modified Wells-Riley model for risk analysis in public transportation systems to capture the passenger flow characteristics, including spatial and temporal patterns in terms of number of boarding, alighting passengers, and number of infectors. The model is utilized to assess overall risk as a function of OD flows, actual operations, and factors such as mask wearing, and ventilation. The model is integrated with a microscopic simulation model of subway operations (SimMETRO). Using actual data from a subway system, a case study explores the impact of different factors on transmission risk, including mask-wearing, ventilation rates, infectiousness levels of disease and carrier rates. In general, mask-wearing and ventilation are effective under various demand levels, infectiousness levels, and carrier rates. Mask-wearing is more effective in mitigating risks. Impacts from operations and service frequency are also evaluated, emphasizing the importance of maintaining reliable, frequent operations in lowering transmission risks. Risk spatial patterns are also explored, highlighting locations of higher risk.
