论文标题
使用常规监视和健康调查数据，马达加斯加疟疾患病率的时空图
Spatiotemporal mapping of malaria prevalence in Madagascar using routine surveillance and health survey data
论文作者
论文摘要
马达加斯加的疟疾传播是高度异质的，表现出空间，季节性和长期趋势。马达加斯加疟疾风险的先前努力使用了疟疾指标调查的患病率数据。这些横断面调查是在2013年和2016年的高传输季节进行的，提供了全国代表性的患病率数据，但涵盖了相对较短的时间范围。相反，每月案例数据是在医疗机构收集的，但遭受了偏见，包括不完整的报告。 我们将调查和案例数据结合在一起，以使2013年至2016年之间的每月流行率。估算了医疗机构流域，发病率表面，环境和社会经济协变量，调查数据为贝叶斯流行率提供了信息。沿海地区的患病率估计值始终高，高地较低。 2014年的患病率最低，并在2015年达到顶峰，强调了调查年份之间估计值的重要性。季节性被广泛观察到。在撒哈拉以南非洲，类似的多项式方法可能适用。
Malaria transmission in Madagascar is highly heterogeneous, exhibiting spatial, seasonal and long-term trends. Previous efforts to map malaria risk in Madagascar used prevalence data from Malaria Indicator Surveys. These cross-sectional surveys, conducted during the high transmission season most recently in 2013 and 2016, provide nationally representative prevalence data but cover relatively short time frames. Conversely, monthly case data are collected at health facilities but suffer from biases, including incomplete reporting. We combined survey and case data to make monthly maps of prevalence between 2013 and 2016. Health facility catchments were estimated and incidence surfaces, environmental and socioeconomic covariates, and survey data informed a Bayesian prevalence model. Prevalence estimates were consistently high in the coastal regions and low in the highlands. Prevalence was lowest in 2014 and peaked in 2015, highlighting the importance of estimates between survey years. Seasonality was widely observed. Similar multi-metric approaches may be applicable across sub-Saharan Africa.
