论文标题
隔离作为有针对性的免疫策略
Quarantines as a Targeted Immunization Strategy
论文作者
论文摘要
在最近的Covid-19爆发中,隔离区已被用来“扁平曲线”并减缓疾病的传播。在本文中,我们表明,这不是隔离的唯一好处,可以减轻爵士流行病在图上的传播。实际上,人类接触网络表现出PowerLaw结构,这意味着随机的免疫节点在减慢流行方面非常无效,而免疫高度节点可以有效地保证牛群免疫力。从理论上讲,我们证明,如果在正确的时刻声明隔离区,则高度节点在去除的状态下是不成比例的,这是靶向免疫的一种形式。即使隔离得太早宣布,随后的感染波传播的范围比第一波慢。这使我们提出了一种开放和结束策略,旨在在感染最少个人数量的同时对图形进行免疫,保证人口现在对未来的感染是可靠的。据我们所知,这是唯一保证无需疫苗的牛群免疫力的策略。我们在模拟和现实生活网络上广泛验证了我们的结果。
In the context of the recent COVID-19 outbreak, quarantine has been used to "flatten the curve" and slow the spread of the disease. In this paper, we show that this is not the only benefit of quarantine for the mitigation of an SIR epidemic spreading on a graph. Indeed, human contact networks exhibit a powerlaw structure, which means immunizing nodes at random is extremely ineffective at slowing the epidemic, while immunizing high-degree nodes can efficiently guarantee herd immunity. We theoretically prove that if quarantines are declared at the right moment, high-degree nodes are disproportionately in the Removed state, which is a form of targeted immunization. Even if quarantines are declared too early, subsequent waves of infection spread slower than the first waves. This leads us to propose an opening and closing strategy aiming at immunizing the graph while infecting the minimum number of individuals, guaranteeing the population is now robust to future infections. To the best of our knowledge, this is the only strategy that guarantees herd immunity without requiring vaccines. We extensively verify our results on simulated and real-life networks.