论文标题
将脆弱性纳入非比例危险回归模型及其诊断及其可靠性模型的诊断
Incorporation of frailties into a non-proportional hazard regression model and its diagnostics for reliability modeling of downhole safety valves
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们的建议包括将脆弱的方法纳入基于非比例危害回归模型的统计方法中，用于建模事件时间。具体而言，我们使用危险函数中引入的脆弱术语的广义时间依赖性逻辑（GTDL）模型来控制采样单元之间无法观察的异质性。我们还会在测量时间效果的参数中添加回归，因为它可以直接反映协变量对失败时间影响的影响。基于在近海石油和天然气生产井中使用的井下安全阀（DHSV）的数据集（DHSVS）的实际问题中说明了所提出模型的实际相关性。除其他外，还可以使用DHSV的可靠性估计来预测井喷的发生，评估改动需求和帮助决策行动。
In this paper, our proposal consists of incorporating frailty into a statistical methodology for modeling time-to-event data, based on non-proportional hazards regression model. Specifically, we use the generalized time-dependent logistic (GTDL) model with a frailty term introduced in the hazard function to control for unobservable heterogeneity among the sampling units. We also add a regression in the parameter that measures the effect of time, since it can directly reflect the influence of covariates on the effect of time-to-failure. The practical relevance of the proposed model is illustrated in a real problem based on a data set for downhole safety valves (DHSVs) used in offshore oil and gas production wells. The reliability estimation of DHSVs can be used, among others, to predict the blowout occurrence, assess the workover demand and aid decision-making actions.
